Daniel Coyle
February 21, 2023

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury Betting Odds and Prediction

Paul returns to action for the first time since outlasting former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva to earn a unanimous decision win in their eight-round tilt back on Oct. 29. Fury has been idle since getting past Daniel Bocianski on points in his last outing, a six-round contest back in April 2022. He now sports a perfect 8-0 pro record. Fury also represents the first professional boxer that Paul has faced to date in the squared circle.

Fight Outcome

Paul By KO or TKO or DQ +150
Paul Decision or Technical Decison +210
Fury By KO or TKO or DQ +225
Fury Decision or Technical Decision +500
Draw or Technical Draw +900

Despite his lack of experience against professional boxers, Paul has emerged as a -167 favourite on the boxing odds, which in effect would increase his win streak. Fury lags as a +130 underdog, while the odds of Sunday afternoon’s clash at Diriyah Arena in Saudi Arabia going the distance are pegged at -123.

Paul vs Fury Betting Analysis

Originally scheduled to face each other back in December 2021, this highly anticipated Paul vs Fury matchup was twice postponed before being rescheduled for Sunday afternoon as part of an impressive card that also features a 12-round battle between Ilunga Makabu and Badou Jack for the WBC cruiserweight title.

Paul has been tagged as betting chalk in each of his previous six pro fights, and sported odds as short as -245 ahead of last fall’s victory over Silva. Conversely, Fury finds himself in an unfamiliar role as a betting underdog. “TNT” has been perched as massive chalk, rewarding loyal sports bettors by paying out on short -2000 odds in last year’s win over Bocianski.

Jake Paul

Can “Problem Child” maintain his dominance in the ring in his first-ever date with a legitimate pro boxer? That is the burning question ahead of Sunday’s clash. Paul has proven he can go toe-to-toe against opponents from the MMA world. However, his victories over Silva, Tyron Woodley, and Ben Askren have failed to convince naysayers. Indeed, each of those opponents enjoyed successful MMA careers on the strength of their grappling skills. Accordingly, Paul faces a huge challenge to produce a convincing win to shake his reputation as an unserious sideshow.

That said, it is tough to overlook his steady performances during his rise to notoriety. Problem Child needed less than two minutes to knock out Askren, and handed Woodley a sixth-round KO in their second meeting in December 2021. Paul also gave Silva all he could handle, knocking down “Spider” in the final round of their eight-round matchup, and his punching power should not be underestimated.

Tommy Fury

Locked in a war of words with Paul for the past two years, Fury now must walk the talk in Sunday’s contest. Indeed, as the first pro boxer to face Paul, Fury has far more to lose in Sunday’s fight. The 23-year-old younger brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury has gone the distance in each of his past three fights, but has never stepped into the ring for a pro fight with a duration of more than six rounds.

Indeed, while “TNT” left Bocainski bloodied and beaten in his last outing, he failed to produce the decisive win needed to send a message to Paul, or justify his position as a massive favourite in that contest. However, Fury’s recent run of fights going the distance should not overshadow his ability to end things quickly. Fury finished opponents inside two rounds in four of his first five pro fights, and his beatdown of Bocianski demonstrated his steadily improving ability to wear down an opponent over the long haul. Accordingly, the longer this fight goes, the more it is likely to favour Fury.