Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz: Boxing Odds, Prediction

Coming off the first loss of his short boxing career, Jake Paul is stepping back into the boxing ring on Saturday when he faces legendary former UFC fighter Nate Diaz. It will be a 10-round fight contested at cruiserweight.

Paul is a -390 favourite to win on the boxing odds, while Diaz is a +232 underdog.

Winner

Jake Paul -455
Draw +1400
Nate Diaz +185

Jake Paul Boxing Odds

Paul is 6-1 since making his professional boxing debut in 2020, but there has been extensive criticism concerning his boxing credibility. Outside of his last fight, a loss to Tommy Fury, Paul hasn’t faced a dedicated professional boxer. Paul’s first two career fight came against fellow YouTube personality AnEsonGib and former NBA player Nate Robinson.

Even the combat sport athletes Paul has faced were well past their prime. “The Problem Child” has faced former UFC fighters Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley (twice) and Anderson Silva. Some boxing commentators and fighters have questioned the legitimacy of the Askren fight, while Paul had a major weight and age advantage against Woodley and Silva.

Overall, Paul has four wins by KO/TKO and two by decision. He lost by split decision to Fury, the younger brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury, in February. Paul did manage to knock Fury down in the eighth round, but Fury landed a higher percentage of his thrown punches. Two judges scored the fight 76-73 in favour of Fury, while a third judge scored the bout 75-74 in favour of Paul.

Paul’s biggest advantage in this fight will be experience and weight. Yes, the 38-year-old Diaz has more combat sports experience than the 26-year-old Paul, but Diaz has strictly been an MMA fighter up to this point. Paul’s seven professional boxing fights are seven more than Diaz. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Paul’s listed weight is about 30 pounds heavier than Diaz, something that could be a major factor in the outcome of this fight.

Nate Diaz Boxing Odds

Diaz has a extensive professional MMA career that dates back to 2004. After winning The Ultimate Fighter 5 in 2007, Diaz went on to become one of the biggest names in UFC history over the next 15 years. Prior to signing in the UFC, he also competed in World Extreme Cagefighting, Strikeforce and Pancrase. His career MMA record is 21-13.

Diaz was known as one of the UFC’s most entertaining fighters. His 16 career UFC bonuses is third all-time in the promotion. Diaz defeated some of the UFC’s biggest names, including Conor McGregor, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and Tony Ferguson. Diaz defeated Ferguson with a guillotine choke, last September. It was his 12th career submission victory. He also has five wins by knockout and four by decision.

Diaz has his work cut out for him in his professional boxing debut. He’ll be facing an opponent who is 12 years younger and 30 pounds heavier. Diaz has always been known for his cardio and resilience, so there is a path to victory. He needs to make this an unpleasant fight for Paul. Diaz’s best bet is to dictate the pace and punish Paul early.