2026 Super Bowl MVP Prediction, Odds: Sam Darnold, Drake Maye favourites
Like the regular season MVP, Super Bowl MVP is often viewed as a quarterback award.
However, other offensive positions have a legitimate shot at winning MVP, particularly at wide receiver.
While quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Drake Maye are the favourites to win Super Bowl MVP, there are a few other candidates I’m keeping my eye on. Let’s get into it.
Sam Darnold
Believe it or not, but Sam Darnold has actually been the winningest quarterback in the NFL over the last couple of years. Darnold is 30-7 straight up and 25-11-1 against the spread across the last two seasons. He also did a lot to quiet the doubters in the NFC Championship game against the Rams, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns.
The one concern I have about Darnold is his high turnover rate. He finished with the third-most interceptions (14) in the NFL this season, although he hasn’t thrown a pick in three straight games. Danrold will also be facing a New England defence that managed just eight interceptions on the season.
Drake Maye
It’s pretty easy to slot the top two favourites to win Super Bowl MVP. The starting quarterback of the favoured team goes first, followed by the starting quarterback of the underdog team, in this case, Drake Maye.
Maye hasn’t been quite as dynamic in the playoffs, but his stats are really skewed by a snowy AFC Championship in Denver that basically didn’t allow for a passing game. The elements shouldn’t be a factor in Santa Clara, California.
You can’t forget Maye is coming off a season that will either see him win regular season MVP or finish as runner-up after throwing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He led the NFL in completion percentage (72 per cent), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5). That’s in addition to rushing for 450 yards and four TDs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favourite among non-QBs and it’s easy to see why. Smith-Njigba is coming off a monster season that saw him lead the league in receiving yards (1,793) while hauling in 10 receiving TDs.
Smith-Njigba will also get a lot of opportunities in this game if the NFC Championship is any indication. He had 10 catches and 12 targets in that game, while the no other Seahawks receiver finished with more than four receptions and six targets.
Kenneth Walker III
In my mind, the best value for Super Bowl MVP is Kenneth Walker III. He won’t face competition from an all-time great quarterback like Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes and I think he’s more vital to Seattle’s attack than Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Walker only continues to get stronger in the playoffs, finishing with 111 scrimmage yards in the NFC Championship against the Rams after putting up 145 total yards and three TDs in the Divisional Round against the 49ers.
If there was ever a year for a running back to win MVP, it’s this one.
Super Bowl MVP position
There’s no mistaking it, Super Bowl MVP is most likely to go to the winning quarterback. Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, including each of the last three. In total, QBs account for 34 Super Bowl MVPs overall.
Wide receiver is the most common non-QB position to win MVP. Cooper Kupp won five years ago with the Rams and the position has won eight times, followed by running backs at seven. However, a running back hasn’t won the award since Terrell Davis in 1997.
Defensive players aren’t exempt as Von Miller won MVP 10 years ago with the Broncos. That’s a rarity, however, with only three defensive players (Miller, Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson) winning the award in the last 20 years.
