Jaguars vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction
Both squads should be motivated to get back to winning ways after fizzling out down the stretch a season ago. A 9-8 finish left Jacksonville outside the AFC playoff picture and has put pressure on both head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence to get back into the post-season. Miami’s fortunes went from top AFC contender to wild-card team before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs without much pushback.
But each club has a fresh start. Kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday goes at 1 p.m. EDT with the Dolphins a 3.5-point favourite on home field, and the total set at 49 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Between the Florida heat and the pace of the Dolphins offence, Miami cooked on home field last year going 7-2 outright and posting an AFC-best 31.9 points per outing at home. Jacksonville’s obviously accustomed to the heat themselves, and playing on the road’s been no hassle as the Jags are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away games.
Jacksonville’s not been able to collect too many wins to begin their past seasons though, winning three of their last 12 September contests. Miami’s 7-1 ATS in their last eight in September and started last season 3-0 in the month including a 70-20 win versus Denver.
Miami’s got +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, while Jacksonville is +120 to even make the playoffs (and +5000 to win it all). But if you ask both clubs, it’s about time they start winning playoff games before major changes loom — except at quarterback as both Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa received huge extensions this off-season for the Jaguars and Dolphins respectively.
Jacksonville Jaguars
While the Trevor Lawrence five-year, $275-million extension was undoubtedly the most important task on the Jaguars off-season, the organization had another key item to check off: getting Lawrence some new weapons. Back are the mainstays: running back Travis Etienne Jr., receiver Christian Kirk, and tight end Evan Engram. But Jacksonville used their first-round pick on LSU’s big, speedy receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and signed Buffalo’s Gabe Davis in free agency.
Jacksonville spent big on defence too, making defensive end Joshua Hines-Allen one of the league’s top paid defenders, and pairing former 49ers defensive tackle Arik Armstead alongside him. Jacksonville’s secondary also gained Darnell Savage at safety and Ronald Darby at corner, all intriguing moves that may have this unit rusty at the beginning but strong down the stretch.
Miami Dolphins
The speed gang is back in the MIA as receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle plus running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are all back and healthy for another kick at the can. Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end Jonnu Smith are in the mix now too and surprise, surprise: that’s more speed. The big question lies is whether head coach Mike McDaniel can keep this dynamic machine that is the Dolphins offence running all season, instead of fading out come December.
On defence, Miami cut ties with a ton of talent. Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker, and Andrew Van Ginkel all signed elsewhere with the bulk of Miami’s cap going to the offensive side of the ball. Miami’s off-season strategy was clearly to bring in veterans and hope they haven’t lost a step. And those guys would be d-lineman Calais Campbell, edge Shaq Barrett, and cornerback Kendall Fuller.
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