Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics WNBA Preview and Prediction
Thursday night’s matchup between the Phoenix Mercury (26-14) and the Washington Mystics (16-25) offers a clash of priorities: the Mercury are fighting for playoff seeding, while the Mystics, already eliminated from contention, are playing for pride, attempting to defend home court and salvage being swept in the three-game season series.
This will be the final meeting of the season, with Phoenix winning both earlier contests: 68-62 in May and 88-72 in July. While Phoenix’s big three of Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper continue to shine, Washington is looking to snap a seven-game skid and finish their season strong. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Phoenix is the nine-point favourite on the WNBA odds and carries a -455 moneyline price. Meanwhile, Washington has +350 moneyline odds, and the game total sits at 160.5.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics WNBA Odds and Betting Trends
The Mercury enter this matchup red-hot with five straight wins, all by at least four points, while the Mystics have dropped seven in a row by an average margin of 14 points. Phoenix leans on the WNBA’s third-ranked defence, forcing turnovers at a high rate, while Washington ranks second-to-last in turnover percentage.
The Mystics get to the foul line better than anyone else and rank second in defensive rebounding, but those features didn’t save them in the first two meetings. Both teams defend the three-point line well, but Phoenix is pretty much better in every area.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix doesn’t dominate in any one statistical area but thrives on balance and discipline. The trio of Thomas (15.8 PPG, 8.9 REB, 9.2 AST), Sabally (16.6 PPG, 6.1 REB), and Copper (16.3 PPG) has carried the Mercury during their late-season surge. Kalani Brown’s expected return from injury adds frontcourt depth, especially after Phoenix scored 50 points in the paint in their last win over Washington.
Travel is a factor, though, as the Mercury played Tuesday in Phoenix and now travels across the country with just one day’s rest, but their defensive consistency continues to set them apart.
Washington Mystics
Not so long ago, the Mystics were in the playoff conversation. On Aug. 17, Washington improved to 16-18. Two weeks later, they have struggled mightily down the stretch, losing seven straight. Still, their stars showed signs of life in the last outing. Following a 37-point loss to the Golden State Valkyries, Kiki Iriafen (22 points and 12 rebounds) and Shakira Austin (11 points and seven rebounds) provided production in the paint. Additionally, Sonia Citron added 12 points in a three-point loss to the Los Angeles Sparks last game.
Without guard Jacy Sheldon, the Mystics’ backcourt depth is thin, and their ability to slow Phoenix’s stars will be tested.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics?
Phoenix’s star power and defensive edge make them the clear favourite, but situational factors like short rest, cross-country travel, and Washington’s home-court pride suggest a closer contest than the standings imply. Expect the Mercury to grind out another win, but the Mystics should keep it competitive and cover the spread in a lower-scoring battle.
Best Bet: Mystics +9
Final Score Prediction: Mercury 75, Mystics 70
