Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty Odds: WNBA Picks, Preview and Prediction
The New York Liberty head home to the Barclays Center tonight looking to shake off Tuesday’s 106-92 setback against the Indiana Fever, where I correctly backed Kelsey Mitchell to score 25+ points. Breanna Stewart (19 points, seven boards) and Sabrina Ionescu (19 points, five assists) paced the Liberty, but they couldn’t keep up with Mitchell and Caitlin Clark. The loss doesn’t change the bigger picture, though; New York sits at 20-14, holds eighth place in the league standings, has won seven of its last nine outings overall, and currently owns an active four-game home winning streak.
Los Angeles is trending in the opposite direction. At 12-20, the Sparks have lost nine of their last 11 and are still finding their footing without Kelsey Plum, who was shipped to Phoenix on August 2 following a stretch on the sidelines with injury. L.A.’s last time out was a 94-87 home defeat to the Mercury on Tuesday, with Rae Burrell and Dearica Hamby each scoring 19. Thursday marks the rubber match in this season series, which stands even at 1-1. The Sparks stole one 98-97 back on June 21, and the Liberty answered with a 113-109 road win on July 28. The teams tip off at Barclays Center at 8:00 PM ET, streaming on Prime Video.
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks WNBA odds and betting trends
New York is favoured by 8.5 points at -110 odds, with the Liberty priced at -360 on the money line against a +285 number for the Sparks. Oddsmakers set the total at 186.5; a number both teams have blown past already this year, having combined for 195 and then 222 points in their two prior head-to-head games. New York ranks first in the WNBA in Over rate at 64.7% (22-12), while the Sparks aren’t far behind at 62.5% (20-12).
The spread data tells a different story than the standings might suggest. Los Angeles has covered in each of its last six trips to New York and sits 7-2-1 against the number over the last 10 meetings between these clubs. The Liberty, on the other hand, own a rough 12-22 ATS record on the season, going just 2-12 against the spread across their last 14 games.
Los Angeles Sparks
Losing Plum has hit the Sparks hardest on the defensive end. L.A. is allowing the second-most points, third-most rebounds, and second-most assists in the league to opposing forwards, and things aren’t much better on the perimeter, where the Sparks rank 14th in three-pointers allowed per game.
Monique Akoa Makani will miss Thursday’s game with an ankle injury. Nneka Ogwumike is still a load in the paint against this Liberty frontcourt; she’s dropped 21 and 24 points in her two meetings with New York this year and has scored at least 20 in four of her last five games versus the Liberty going back to last season.
New York Liberty
Stewart has been on an upward trajectory, now averaging 21.3 points per game to pace New York after sitting closer to 19 a night around the All-Star break. The Liberty won’t have Satou Sabally or Leonie Fiebich available Thursday, though, which shifts more of the scoring burden onto Stewart and Ionescu.
The latter thrives in front of the Barclays Center crowd and has been among the league’s more lethal shooters from deep whenever fully healthy this season. I expect Ionescu to be New York’s main scorer tonight.
WNBA Prediction: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Best Bet: Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-113)
Ionescu lit up the Sparks the last time these teams met, connecting on five of nine threes en route to 27 points. She’s been quieter lately, making just three of her last 17 attempts from beyond the arc, but a Los Angeles defence sitting near the bottom of the league against the three-point shot is exactly the kind of matchup that snaps a shooter of her caliber out of a rut.
Over her last 14 games, Ionescu has knocked down three or more threes seven times, and she’s nailed 3+ threes in eight of the 10 games this season where she’s played 31+ minutes. I don’t expect this to be a blowout given the Liberty’s ATS record, so I’ll gladly take Ionescu to clear 2.5 threes.
Final Score Prediction: Sparks 91 | Liberty 97