Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals Game 4 Preview and Prediction
With the Aces controlling a commanding 3–0 series lead, Game 4 in Phoenix may be the final game of the WNBA season. Game 3’s buzzer-beating shot from four-time MVP A’ja Wilson could be the back-breaker for the Mercury’s season.
The Mercury have battled through adversity, knocking out the defending champion New York Liberty and the title favourite Minnesota Lynx, but here, their backs are firmly against the wall. Win and stay alive; lose and accept a home sweep. The Aces smell blood.
Las Vegas is a 1.5-point favourite on the WNBA odds, with the total set at 164.5.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals preview and Game 4 Odds and Betting Trends
Sportsbooks generally slide the Aces in as slim favourites tonight, with lines hovering around Aces -1.5 (–115) and the total in the 163–165 range. Notably, Phoenix has now lost six of seven matchups with Las Vegas this season.
The series has tilted offence-first, and bettors are closely watching Satou Sabally’s injury status, as her late exit in Game 3 adds volatility. The Aces have also shown lethal composure late, especially with A’ja Wilson delivering big shots under pressure.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are practically in cruise control. A’ja Wilson dropped 34 points and 14 boards in Game 3, becoming the first player in Finals history to put up back-to-back 25+ and 10+ performances. Her late-game jumper with 0.3 seconds left is already timeless.
Jackie Young adds balance with her playmaking and scoring, while Jewell Loyd’s early splash threes often quiet the crowd. Their bench maintains defensive intensity and spacing. Las Vegas has managed momentum swings deftly and continues to force Phoenix into reactive mode.
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury look emotionally spent. Sabally, who was being double-teamed hard, exited late in Game 3 after a head collision; her availability for Game 4 is murky. Phoenix’s core – Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Sabally – combined for 55 points for the third consecutive game, but the supporting cast remains suspect. They coughed up perimeter shots early and couldn’t contain Wilson.
Phoenix’s defence allowed nine uncontested makes from three in the first half of Game 3. Their reroutes to zone or matchup didn’t close out. They’ll need Sabally, or at least plenty of supporting punch, to fuel a rally tonight.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Aces vs Mercury Game 4?
This feels like the definitive moment. The Aces have shown the toughness, balance and big-play capability to close this series out in Phoenix. With Sabally’s status uncertain and Wilson playing legendary basketball, Vegas has more answers than the Mercury. Expect another tight, tense finish, but the Aces don’t tend to slip in these spots. I’m predicting Las Vegas to win this one 90-84 in another high-scoring contest, giving the Aces -1.5 and Over 164.5 value.
