U.S. Open Women’s Semifinals Preview and Predictions: Sabalenka vs. Pegula, Anisimova vs. Osaka

Two of the contestants in the U.S. Open women’s semifinals are already Grand Slam champions (Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka), while the other two are slam finalists (Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova). The result is a blockbuster order of play in primetime at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Let’s break down the two semifinal matchups and discuss the best bets to make. 

U.S. Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula best bet – Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-118) 

Sabalenka and Pegula will square off for the 10th time in their careers on Thursday in what is a rematch of last summer’s U.S. Open final. Twelve months ago, on this same Arthur Ashe Stadium court, it was Sabalenka who triumphed 7-5, 7-5 for her first U.S. Open title and third overall at a Grand Slam. The Belarusian now leads the head-to-head series with Pegula 7-2, and all seven of her wins have come in straight sets. Pegula has never even forced a single tiebreaker in any of her seven losses. Sabalenka has won each of their last three meetings – all on outdoor hard courts – after most recently prevailing at the Miami Open this spring via a 7-5, 6-2 decision.

There is little reason to think that Pegula will suddenly turn the tide. The 31-year-old American is playing well this fortnight, but her 2025 campaign on the whole has been a disappointment. She also has not yet faced anyone quite like Sabalenka. After all, this is the No. 1 player in the world we are talking about. Sabalenka has not yet captured a major title in 2025, but she reached the final at the Australian Open and French Open, plus the semis at Wimbledon. The 27-year-old has played in each of the last two U.S. Open finals. A third consecutive appearance is likely in store.

U.S. Open: Amanda Anisimova vs. Naomi Osaka best bet – Anisimova ML (-105)

Anisimova’s performance in the quarterfinals on Wednesday could not have been more impressive. Two months ago, she lost to Iga Swiatek 6-0, 6-0 in the Wimbledon championship match; this time, she beat Swiatek 6-4, 6-3. That is an incredible mental performance to bounce back in such style, not to mention that her level of tennis is also incredible. The 24-year-old is up to No. 9 in the rankings and she has dropped only one set so far in New York. Her last five set scores are 6-2, 6-0, 6-3, 6-4 and 6-3.

Osaka is a formidable foe, but she still has to win two more matches to prove that she is back to the level that carried her to four Grand Slam titles between 2018 and 2021. Whereas Anisimova had a difficult mental hurdle to overcome on Wednesday, perhaps now that task belongs to Osaka on Thursday. The 27-year-old is into her first slam semifinal since giving birth to her first child, so her quarterfinal victory over Karolina Muchova on Thursday night was quite a big moment. Getting right back in gear with zero days off might not be so easy. Moreover, Anisimova has the kind of offensive weapons that can take time away from Osaka and draw errors in the veteran’s high-risk, high-reward game. Anisimova has won both of their previous head-to-head encounters and she should be able to win a third.