U.S. Open Men’s Semifinals Preview and Predictions: Sinner vs. Auger-Aliassime, Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

Standing in the way of what would be the Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime’s first-ever Grand Slam final appearance is none other than world No. 1 Jannik Sinner on Friday night. That showdown will be preceded by one of the best rivalries in tennis: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic. It is a blockbuster semifinal lineup in New York.

Let’s break down the two matchups and discuss the best bets to make. 

U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime best bet – Under 30.5 games (-110) 

Auger-Aliassime has been awesome this fortnight, turning back the clock to 2021 and 2022 – when he climbed to No. 6 in the rankings thanks in part to another U.S. Open semifinal appearance four years ago. The 25-year-old has defeated Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur so far at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Unfortunately for Auger-Aliassime, that is just about where the good news ends. He needed four hours and 10 minutes to get past De Minaur 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5, 7-6(4) on Wednesday. Now he has only one day off before facing the top seed and defending champion. Sinner surprisingly dropped a set to another Canadian – Denis Shapovalov – in the third round, but the 24-year-old Italian won his next two matches 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 over Alexander Bublik and 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 over Lorenzo Musetti. Speaking of such domination, Sinner just destroyed Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2 when they faced each other last month in Cincinnati. All signs point to Friday’s second semifinal being a quick match. 

U.S. Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic best bet – Over 37.5 games (-118) 

The story will likely be much different when Alcaraz and Djokovic square off earlier in the day. Although Alcaraz comes in as a considerable favourite, tales of Djokovic’s demise are greatly exaggerated. The 38-year-old Serb does not care about any tournaments other than Grand Slams these days, but put him in a slam setting and he remains one of the best players in the world. This is Djokovic’s fourth semifinal appearance in four majors this season. The world No. 7 is once again looking good in New York and has been especially impressive in the last two rounds, crushing Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets and taking down fourth-seeded Taylor Fritz in four.

Alcaraz will probably win the match – that’s just how well the second-ranked Spaniard is playing at the moment. However, it may not be easy. Not only is Djokovic perhaps the most formidable of foes other than Sinner, but the veteran also has a history of success in this matchup. The 24-time major champion is 5-3 lifetime against Alcaraz and has won two in a row – in the gold-medal match of the 2024 Paris Olympics and in four sets at the 2025 Australian Open. These two rivals have squared off four times at Grand Slams; only one has ended in straight sets (the 2024 Wimbledon final, and that was when Djokovic was compromised by a knee injury). Count on Friday night resulting in a long, competitive contest that lives up to the hype.