U.S. Open Men’s Singles Final Preview: Rubber match between Sinner and Alcaraz

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz split recent showdowns at the French Open and Wimbledon; now the proverbial rubber match will come at the U.S. Open on Sunday afternoon.

The showdown was seemingly inevitable when the draw came out more than two weeks ago, and neither man had much trouble making it come to fruition. Alcaraz has not dropped a single set this fortnight; Sinner has lost only two.

Following six rounds of borderline dominance by both players, it’s time to get your popcorn ready for what has become one of the best rivalries in all of sports.

Sinner is a -125 favourite to win on the US Open Men’s tennis odds, while Alcaraz is a +105 underdog.

Let’s break down the final matchup and discuss the best bets to make. 

U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz best bet #1 – Sinner ML (-130) 

Sinner indeed trails the overall head-to-head series 9-5, but their most recent result at the Cincinnati Masters earlier this summer can be thrown out the window (the Italian retired after just five games due to an illness). Moreover, Sinner really should be 2-0 against Alcaraz in major finals this season. Before prevailing in four sets at Wimbledon, the world No. 1 had a triple-championship point at the French Open for what would have been a four-set victory. Alcaraz improbably went on to triumph in a fifth-set tiebreaker.

I can’t deny that Alcaraz is playing exceptionally well, but Sinner is also in fine form and has been the undisputed best player on hard courts since 2024. The 24-year-old has won each of the last three hard-court slams – two in a row at the Australian Open and the U.S. Open last summer. As just a slight favourite, Sinner has good value to lift yet another trophy.

U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz best bet #2 – Over 41.5 games (-140) 

Anything less than an instant classic between the two best players in the sport would be a disappointment. As previously mentioned, their recent Roland Garros collision went the distance – all the way to a fifth-set tiebreaker. Their only previous U.S. Open tilt in the 2022 quarterfinals also went five sets, with Alcaraz emerging victorious 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3. That’s 56 games for those counting. They also played a five-setter at the 2024 French Open (semifinals) and a final-set tiebreaker a few months later in Beijing.

All we need – most likely – is a four-set match with at least one tiebreaker. That should not be too much to ask.

U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz best bet #3 – Exactly four sets to be played in the match (+154)

This play correlates nicely with backing Sinner on the money line and – as mentioned above – a four-setter should also be enough to take the match over the total. For obvious reasons, a straight-set contest is unlikely; each guy is playing too well to lose swiftly. If it goes five sets, Alcaraz would probably have the upper hand. The 22-year-old boasts an incredible five-set record and would likely have both the physical and mental edge over Sinner in a marathon match, as he did at the 2022 U.S. Open and the 2025 French Open. 

Sinner, though, is looking like the slightly superior player overall – both at this event and during the entire year. He has been the title favourite this whole fortnight for a reason. Look for the world No. 1 to get across the finish line before it goes five, just as he did at Wimbledon.