U.S. Open 2025 Third Round Predictions: Auger-Aliassime, Shapovalov, and Best Bets

Third-round action at the U.S. Open continues on Saturday at Flushing Meadows. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov are on the schedule, both facing difficult matches – and that’s an understatement. Auger-Aliassime runs into Alexander Zverev, while Shapovalov goes up against Jannik Sinner. Tommy Paul, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Naomi Osaka headline the order of play, so there’s plenty to watch this weekend.

Let’s take a look at some of Saturday’s intriguing matchups and discuss the best US Open bets to make. 

U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov best bet – Under 30.5 games (-150) 

Sinner is the best player in the world regardless of surface. The top-ranked Italian should have won the French Open on clay (lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the final after leading two sets to love and having triple-championship point), and he won Wimbledon on grass. Sinner has triumphed at each of the last three hard-court Grand Slams – the Australian Open twice in a row and the U.S. Open last summer. Through two rounds in New York, the 23-year-old has lost a total of 11 games in six sets. 

Sinner has not dropped more than three games in any set. This stretch includes a victory over Alexei Popyrin, who upset Novak Djokovic en route to round four of the 2024 U.S. Open and also won the Montreal Masters last summer. Shapovalov is in decent form, but nothing suggests that the Canadian will be any more competitive against Sinner than Popyrin was on Thursday. 

U.S. Open: Alexander Zverev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime best bet – Zverev -1.5 sets (-175) 

Zverev is dominating the head-to-head series against Auger-Aliassime 6-2 heading into Saturday’s showdown. The third-ranked German has won two in a row in straight sets – 6-3, 7-7-5 at the 2022 Madrid Masters and 6-2, 6-4 last spring in Miami. It’s hard to see Auger-Aliassime turning the tide, given how well his opponent is playing right now. Zverev reached back-to-back semifinals in Toronto and Cincinnati and has been dominant through two rounds at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. 

The German disposed of Alejandro Tabilo and Jake Fearnley earlier this week, with just one set being more competitive than 6-4. Auger-Aliassime lost just one set combined against Billy Harris and Roman Safiullin, but both matches were much closer than the scoreline indicates. The 27th-ranked Canadian may snag one set, but asking him to take two is probably too much. 

U.S. Open: Coco Gauff vs. Magdalena Frech best bet – Frech +5.5 games (+105) 

Gauff has somehow advanced to the third round in New York, but her game is in absolute shambles. The serve is the biggest problem. Gauff has played multiple matches this season with more than 20 double-faults, and she has doubled 18 times through two rounds at the U.S. Open. That is tied for second most in the women’s draw. Gauff was in tears late in the first set of Thursday night’s victory over Donna Vekic, who was dealing with serving issues of her own due to an apparent arm injury. 

If the Swiss had been anywhere close to 100%, that would have been a very winnable match for the underdog. Frech does not wield a ton of offensive firepower, but she is a consistent baseline player who can keep balls in play and make opponents beat themselves. That is a recipe that can work against Gauff right now.