2022 French Open Men’s Final: Tennis Odds, Predictions

Nadal is a heavy favourite on the tennis odds.

Nadal vs. Ruud French Open Odds

Rafael Nadal -505
Casper Ruud +326

Could Sunday be the last-ever French Open match for the King of Clay Rafael Nadal? The 36-year-old (his birthday was Friday) has hinted this might be his last time competing at the event he has dominated with an incredible 13 titles, by far the most wins at any Grand Slam event by a male or female.

The Spaniard has been dealing with a chronic left foot injury/pain for years and he’d surely like to go out in Paris on top: “Being honest, every match that I play here, I don’t know if it’s going to be my last match here in Roland Garros, in my tennis career,” Nadal said before his quarterfinal matchup against Novak Djokovic.

While Nadal caught a terrible break being in the same half of the bracket with the defending champion and world No. 1 Djokovic and No. 3 Alexander Zverev (and Carlos Alcaraz), Nadal caught a big break in Friday’s semifinal match because Zverev retired.

Nadal had won the first set 7-6(8) – he faced four set points down 6-2 in the tiebreaker — and had just tied the second set 6-6 when Zverev took a tumble onto his ankle while attempting to return the winning shot, with the German leaving the court in a wheelchair. Several minutes later, Zverev came back out using crutches and said he needed to retire from the match.

It’s a major advantage that Nadal didn’t have to play a long, grueling match (although it already was at three hours when it ended) as unfortunate as it was for Zverev, looking for his first Grand Slam title and with a chance to reach No. 1 in the world by winning in Paris. It was the eighth instance of a retirement in the semifinals or later of a men’s Grand Slam event in the Open Era (since 1968).

Nadal is the oldest finalist in French Open history. His 21 Grand Slam titles are already a record, one ahead of Djokovic (good chance of getting a handful more) and Roger Federer (may not play again and probably not winning another Slam even if he does). Nadal has three career losses in the French Open but never in the final.

(Side note: Nadal already has said he’s not playing Wimbledon this year, neither is Federer and Zverev’s status is certainly up in the air now.)

Norway’s Casper Ruud has become the first male player since Robin Soderling in 2009 to reach his first French Open fourth round, quarterfinal, semifinal and final in the same year. Soderling, incidentally, upset Nadal in the Round of 16 that year in one of the biggest upsets in the sport’s history but lost to Roger Federer in straight sets in the final.

The 23-year-old Ruud became the first Norwegian to reach a Grand Slam final by beating No. 20 Marin Cilic 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 on Thursday. Ruud’s 66 wins on clay since the start of 2020 are the most on the ATP Tour. Clay brings out specialists more than any other surface. Ruud’s two titles this year were both on clay in Geneva and Buenos Aires, both with weak fields.

This will be the first career meeting between these two. Nadal is a -608 favourite with Ruud +373. The total match games is set at over-under 34.5.