UEFA Champions League Quarter-finals: First Leg Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
It’s been a whirlwind month since we last experienced some Champions League action. All the domestic leagues have seen the title races take shape and, if you can believe it, two clubs still alive at this phase have sacked their managers in the interim. Definitely surprising, but expectations are high for franchises like this and when results don’t meet expectations, big decisions are made.
As always, check out the Champions League odds for all your soccer action.
And now, without further ado, let’s get down to business and explore the first leg of the quarter-finals.
Tuesday, April 11: Manchester City vs Bayern Munich
Shockingly, this is one of the ties that earned itself a plot twist regarding managerial musical chairs. The last time the Bavarian giants played a match in this competition, Julian Nagelsmann led them to a Round of 16 win over perennial favourites Paris Saint-Germain. But Nagelsmann was shone the door at Alianz Arena by the club’s sporting directors a few weeks ago after a bad loss domestically, and now Thomas Tuchel has taken over. Want more juicy tidbits? Tuchel is a former Chelsea manager who took over during the 2020-2021 campaign and led the Blues to continental glory. The opposition they faced in the final? Manchester City.
There is no question that City are firing on all cylinders these days. Their deficit in the Premier League was cut from eight points to six thanks to Arsenal slipping up at Liverpool. Consider that in their last four matches in all competitions, Manchester have scored 21 goals and conceded 1. Granted, they haven’t played a side like Bayern in that span, but suffice it to say that Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and the gang are clicking at just the right moment.
As for Bayern, the late-season shuffle in the coach’s seat was a surprise, but having an accomplished manager like Thomas Tuchel – someone who has won a Champions League – should reassure the Munich faithful. His arrival came during the international break and after a bad defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, but they have since righted the ship by defeating Borussia Dortmund (Haaland’s former club) 4-2 and SC Freiburg 1-0. They currently lead the Bundesliga once again.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Bayern Munich
Tuesday, April 11: Benfica vs Inter Milan
When tackling the Round of 16 and Quarter-finals, every year there is a tie or two that feel as if they’ll get overlooked. To be fair, this year’s quarters are. If there is one head-to-head meeting that might not attract that many eyes, it would be this one – it doesn’t help that it’s played at the same time as City-Bayern. Both clubs were involved in some dramatic contests over the weekend.
Benfica will hope that Tuesday goes well not only to improve their odds of being Champions League semifinalists, but to wash away the bitter taste of what happened over the weekend in the Portuguese Liga. With a 10-point lead over eternal rivals Porto, the latter came to the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, and some fans may have thought the time was ripe to land the coup de grâce in the title race. It started off well enough, with the hosts through an own goal by Diogo Costa. In truth, the play was a wonderful cross and a thumping header that bounced off the crossbar and the keeper’s back. But that was it for Benfica, who witnessed Porti slowly take over the game. The visitors could have had a 2-1 lead at the break but their second was a fraction offside. No matter, they claimed the winning goal in the second half and earned the spoils. Benfica leads the league by seven, but the defeat hurt their pride.
Internazionale also experienced a roller coaster of emotions in Seria A action when they visited Salernitana. They too began brightly, with oft-maligned German Robin Gosens brilliant touch in the sixth minute giving Inter the lead. From that point on, Salernitana keeper Guillermo Ochoa played out of his mind, frustrating any Inter player who tried doubling the lead. Romelu Lukaku came close plenty of times. Then, in the 90th minute, disaster struck when an Antonio Candreva cross from way out fooled Andre Onana. A stunning 1-1 final.
Prediction: Benfica 1-1 Inter Milan
Wednesday, April 12: AC Milan vs Napoli
What a time to be an Italian football fan. Not only does it look as if a club not named AC Milan, Juventus, or Inter will earn the scudetto, but two powerful sides will meet in the Champions League quarter-finals. The title race may be over at home – Napoli’s lead is a massive 16 points – but the Rossoneri would like nothing better than to send the message to their local rivals that they aren’t at the level of Europe’s great clubs just yet.
AC Milan have a tender lead on fourth place in Seria A – like in England, fourth grants a club passage to the following season’s Champions League. It got a whole lot more delicate over the weekend when they hosted a beatable Empoli side. It was a match that represented the kind of year it’s been for Stefano Pioli’s ensemble. Good, but not good enough. Wearing their odd military camouflage colours, the hosts harassed Empoli’s final third all day long. Divock Origi, Sandro Tonali, Brahim Diaz, and Olivier Giroud all could have broken the deadlock. Giroud even thought he had in the 89th, but he sent a cross in with his arm more so than his head. Make the final 0-0, thickening the logjam for a top-four finish in Italy.
As for Napoli, they picked themselves up from the previous week’s defeat at the hand of, ironically, AC Milan. The 4-0 smashing – at home, no less – didn’t feel good. The performance was better at Lecce, but far from title-worthy. Giovanni Di Lorenzo opened the tally in the 18th minute, and Napoli had an own goal in 64thminute to thank for the three points they collected in their 2-1 victory. Unless a total calamity strikes, Napoli will be Seria A champions in 2022-2023, but it’s been a little testy in recent weeks. One wonders if it’s a case of a squad playing with so much fire and passion for months that there isn’t much left in the tank by April and May. We may find out a lot about Luciano Spalletti’s men this week. It appears striker Victor Osimhen will miss the match.
Prediction: AC Milan 2-2 Napoli
Wednesday, April 12: Real Madrid vs Chelsea
In a bit of a plot twist, this tie will begin in Madrid and end in London rather than the other way around. The real question is: will that matter?
The race for another La Liga title is all but over, what with Barcelona leading the table by a comfortable 13 points. That said, this is the competition that has Real Madrid’s name all over it. Carlos Ancelotti may or may not be with the club come next season, but he’d surely like to go out on a high with another run of continental glory should he opt to leave. It seems as though apart from the Champions League, Madrid are terribly unpredictable. They mounted an incredible performance at the Camp Nou in the second leg of the Copa del Rey, battering Barça 4-0. They followed that up with a 3-2 defeat at home to Villareal in league action. They didn’t play poorly at all (Vinicius Jr’s second-half goal was brilliant) but, as has been so often the case this season, they let their guard down in La Liga.
How’s this for a headline: Frank Lampard leads Chelsea in the Champions League quarter-finals. Yes, Lampard is back, albeit only until the end of the season. Graham Potter was sacked a couple of weeks ago after too many dreadful Premier League performances. This is a club without any semblance of direction at the moment. They are unquestionably the most vulnerable of the eight remaining clubs in the competition. They did play quite well against Dortmund in the round of 16, but that’s starting to feel like a lifetime ago, and Dortmund isn’t Real Madrid. People will pay attention because the tie involves an English club and the Spanish giants, but it could be the least competitive of the quartet.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Chelsea