Spain vs. Croatia: Euro 2024 Odds and Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
The heavyweights come out to shine in Berlin on Saturday, with Spain and Croatia ranked eighth and tenth by FIFA, respectively. Both countries enter major tournaments with high aspirations, and Euro 2024 is no exception.
Our Euro 2024 odds give the nod to Spain for the win at -110. Croatia is pegged at +320, and a draw is +240.
Spain vs. Croatia Betting Analysis
Memories of Euro 2020 linger. As some may recall, these nations duked it out in the first knockout round, the Round of 16. It was a beguiling affair, featuring far more goals than is typical when the stakes are so high. The Iberian peninsula nation took the spoils with a thrilling 5-3 win in extra time.
Historically Spain has the edge over Croatia, as they lead the all-time head-to-head 6-1-3 (win, draw, loss). The only draw (0-0) came about a year ago at the 2023 UEFA Nations League.
The Spaniards are flying high lately. In March they played mighty Brazil to a 3-3 draw in a friendly. That was followed by a 5-0 mauling of Andorra, an expected result. The cherry on top of their Euro preparations was a 5-1 disintegration of Northern Ireland barely a week ago on June 8th. And that was after falling behind 1-0 early!
That’s not to say that Croatia don’t have impressive results to report on. They downed African giants Egypt 4-2 in March before unsurprisingly handling North Macedonia 3-0 shortly thereafter. Most recently they bested one of the tournament favourites Portugal 2-1.
Spain
One of the big questions surrounding Luis de la Fuente’s group is whether they can return to the vertiginous heights of the late 2000s and early 2010s. Those glory years saw the country capture the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, capping it off with a coronation at the 2012 Euro.
Things have not gone according to plan since then, however. After getting blown out of the water at the 2014 World Cup as defending champions, Spain has experienced a series of mishaps. Most recently came a slow and painful death against Morocco in the Round of 2016 at the 2022 World Cup, who thwarted every attacking manoeuvre Spain could muster. Therein lies the rub with Spain. They have the talent to control games, but they have show that they have a nose for the goal.
With a roster filled with names like Rodri, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Fermin Lopez, and Dani Carvajal, there is no reason to think they will be incapable of standing up to anybody.
Croatia
The Croatians have sniffed glory a few times in recent years but have yet to realize their full potential. They were runners-up at the 2018 World Cup and fell in the semis in Qatar 2022. Their European championship history is not quite as illustrious, with their best finish being a pair of quarter-final appearances (1996 and 2008).
Most football fans know they are a side graced with talent, yet the Croatians never stir the passion in these competition previews. It’s always France, England, Italy, Germany, etc. But a look at who Croatia is bringing to the party this summer is quite telling. Seasoned veteran Luka Modric is their ageless wonder in the midfield. With him though are Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Perisic, and a host of other players who rightfully get playing time on many of the world’s most respected and popular clubs. There is a reason why they are ranked 10th in the entire world. Overlooking them would be unwise.