Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction: Champions League Semi-Final Odds

Edgar Chaput
May 8, 2023

Flashback to a year ago at this very stage of the competition, when these same sides clashed in one of the most epic Champions League ties ever. The biggest difference, apart from City possessing one of the game’s greatest goal scorers, is that the settings are reversed. This time the opening match is in Spain and the return leg is in England.

Betters take note. The Champions League odds have Manchester City at -106 for Tuesday’s first leg at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. That’s how good they’ve been playing these days. They’re favoured on the road against the kings of European football.

Madrid is +252 and a draw is +278.

Manchester City -107
Draw +286
Real Madrid +237

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Betting Analysis

One thing is for certain. From the moment Erling Haaland signed with City last summer, fantasies of going toe-to-toe with Real Madrid again sprouted in fans’ imaginations. And for good reason.

Last year’s semi-final tie was the stuff of legend. The opening act at the Etihad saw Manchester race out to an impressive 3-0 lead. But the Spanish giants can never, ever be counted out. A brilliant goal from Vinicius Jr in the 55^th minute made it 3-1 and from that point onward the semi-final was never the same. Game 1 finished 4-3 for City. Then, at the Bernabeu, Pep Guardiola’s men went ahead 1-0 (5-3 on aggregate) in the 73^rd minute. A Jack Grealish shot attempt that would have ended it was saved on the goal line. The rest, as they say, is history. Madrid scored twice through Rodrygo and Karim Benzema in the 90+1^st and 95^th minutes to claim the two legs 6-5. A few weeks later, they downed Liverpool 1-0 to win it all.

City fans don’t need any reminding that their side is still searching for its first title in this competition.

Real Madrid

Carlos Ancelotti’s men were involved in a completely different competition this past weekend. For all the fuss over their brilliance in the Champions League and struggles in La Liga (third place, 14 points behind Barcelona), there was the matter of the Copa del Rey final to deal with.

The clash was against Osasuna. While that in of itself might lead the layperson to believe the challenge was easy for Real, the truth of the matter is that when mid-table clubs like Osasuna can sniff success in a domestic cup competition, they tend to put all their eggs in that basket. The contest suggested as much, even though Madrid went ahead through Rodrygo in the second minute. While the hit was great, most of the work was courtesy of Vini Jr., who outdid defenders on the left baseline before sending the ball into the middle on a low, strong pass. In fact, the second goal was the result of a similar set-up. With the score tied 1-1 in the 70^th, Vini Jr. again attacked from the left on the baseline and again sent the ball low and hard. After a couple of deflections, Rodrygo got his brace. Make the final 2-1, awarding Real its first Copa del Rey trophy since 2014.

Manchester City

The march towards the trebble continues for Manchester City. Few believe they’ll fail in the Premier League. The FA Cup final is a juicy proposition against cross-town rivals United, but no one thinks the latter is the better side. It is in the Champions League semi-final where they just might fail at winning the three big trophies.

Speaking of the domestic league, City had what some might generously describe as “a scare” over the weekend. At home to relegation-threatened Leeds United, things were peachy in the first 30 minutes of play. Ilkay Gundogan scored twice (19^th and 27^th minutes) to lend his side a comfortable 2-0 lead. But then things got interesting when Haaland refused a penalty in the 84^th minute, offering Gungodan a chance at his first-ever hat trick. The latter hit the post and Leeds alarmingly scored 60 seconds later. That’s as close as it would get, however, as City took it 2-1.