Real Madrid vs. Benfica UEFA Champions League Playoff Round Preview and Prediction
The Champions League playoff phase has reached the second of two legs this week, and most European eyes will be on the Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain, this Wednesday. Portuguese side Benfica will travel to battle Real Madrid after suffering a 1-0 setback in the first leg at home. Although the victory should’ve been the main storyline from that game for Madrid fans, it was overshadowed by Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni’s racial abuse allegations against Madrid forward Vinícius Júnior.
Prestianni was provisionally suspended by UEFA for this game while an investigation continues, which will be another hurdle for the Portuguese side as they take on the 15-time European champions.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica English Premier League Odds and Betting Trends
Real Madrid (-220) are heavy favourites on the Champions League odds to win in 90 minutes over Benfica (+550), with the draw at a +400 price. Holding a 1-0 first-leg lead, Madrid’s -1400 odds to advance are justified; they haven’t blown a first-leg knockout lead since 2019-20.
Oddsmakers expect scoring, pricing Over 2.5 goals at -220. Kylian Mbappé is the favourite to score (-190), followed by Vinícius (+170), who has found the net in four consecutive games. For Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis (+195) offers great value: the forward leads the Portuguese league with 20 goals in 23 matches and hasn’t gone three straight games without scoring since October.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid’s four-game winning streak ended this weekend with a 2-1 La Liga loss at Osasuna. Despite Vini Jr. equalizing in the 73rd minute, Madrid gave up the game-winner in the 90th minute. This late-game vulnerability is a glaring trend: Los Blancos have conceded in the 90th minute or stoppage time in their last three defeats. Manager Álvaro Arbeloa must tighten up their ability to close out games if they want to secure silverware this season.
Despite the road loss, Madrid remains dominant at home. They are riding a six-game home winning streak, with their last defeat at the Bernabéu coming against Manchester City on December 10. Since the 2022-23 season, they boast a formidable 17-3-3 home record in the Champions League, losing only to Man City and Arsenal. Ultimately, Real Madrid should take care of business comfortably.
Benfica
With nothing to lose, expect former Madrid manager José Mourinho to throw everything at this upset, though he’ll be serving a touchline suspension following a first-leg red card. After taking a conservative approach in the opener, Benfica will have to open up offensively to overcome the 1-0 deficit. However, a prolonged 0-0 tie works in their favour, keeping their comeback hopes alive after creating solid scoring chances in the first leg.
Benfica followed up their UCL defeat with a 3-0 victory against AFS domestically, and they’re 5-0-1 in their last six league matches. As strong as they’ve played in Portugal, they’ve struggled on the road in the UCL. Benfica went 1-0-3 away from home during the group stage, suffering defeats at Chelsea (0-1), Newcastle (0-3), and Juventus (0-2). Their lone win came against Ajax (2-0), resulting in a negative four-goal differential on the road during the group stage. I expect more of the same on Wednesday.
Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Real Madrid vs. Benfica?
Benfica was this competition’s best storyline when they qualified via an extra-time goal by their goalie in the final group stage match against Madrid, but their run will end here. Madrid is in a bounce-back spot after losing over the weekend, and they’re 14-0-2 at the Bernabéu this season in all competitions.
Madrid has seen 10 of their 14 victories at home feature fewer than five goals, and I’ll ride that trend on Wednesday. Expect Madrid to pull out a 2-0 or 3-1 victory.
Best Bet: Real Madrid and Under 4.5 Goals (-110)
Score Prediction: Madrid 2 | Benfica 0