Qatar vs. Netherlands Prediction: 2022 World Cup Betting Odds

Edgar Chaput
November 28, 2022

Louis van Gaal’s European side need at a bare minimum a draw, ideally a win, so they’ll be out in full force. The hosts are already out but showed signs of life in the loss to Senegal.

Odds makers heavily favour the Netherlands at -568 (have fun with Qatar at +1,200!). A draw is pinned at +208.

Qatar vs. Netherlands Betting Analysis

Netherlands -576
Draw +580
Qatar +1200

There has never been a contest between these two countries, be it in a friendly or a tournament context. Yet another original World Cup matchup.

We’ve discussed a lot about what Félix Sanchez Bas’ side could bring to Group A. Early signs that something was brewing came at the 2019 Asian Cup, which the Arab side conquered. Since then, it had been a bit of a roller coaster of fine performances against beatable opponents, and meeker outings versus stout opposition. The 2021 Arab Cup saw them place 3^rd, but Iraq and the UAE don’t constitute top-class competition.

The Oranje’s Cup history is well documented, and we’ve shared some of its accomplishments in our previews. Since 1990, they either haven’t qualified (2002, 2018) or they succeeded in the group stage. Matchday 3 typically goes well, whether there is everything to play for or only keep the momentum going. They drew with Mexico in ’98, drew with Argentina in ’06. Wins came against Cameroon in 2010, as well as Chile in 2014.

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Qatar

The Qatari ensemble has one final performance to give before its final bow in front of the home fans at the 2022 World Cup. It’s as clear as spring water that they are not a top footballing nation and have work to do if they want to reach that level, but it would be foolish to underestimate squads that only have pride to play for. Moreover, this one will do so surely in front of a large, supportive crowd.

Whatever ambition Qatar can take into this matchup can be discerned from their second group match with the Senegalese. They lost 3-1, which doesn’t look great on the scorecard, but some positives could be extrapolated. First, they scored a goal, something they failed to do when playing Ecuador. Second, it came when all hope seemed lost, trailing 2-0 in the second half. Mohammed Muntari placed a nice header into the lower corner after receiving Ismail Mohamad’s cross from the right. The home side created a couple of other strong opportunities but lacked finishing.

Netherlands

On paper, this is a mismatch. Not reaching the knockout stages would itself be gravely disappointing. To fail against Qatar would have them exit the World Cup with heads hanging embarrassingly low.

Lessons will need to be learned from the game against Ecuador. In the FIFA world rankings, the Oranje sit 8^th, the Ecuadorians 44^th. You wouldn’t know it from watching the contest. The opening moments were a display of Dutch superiority, with free-flowing attack that sliced through the South American defence. Cody Gakpo scored a corker in the 6^th minute, sending fans into a frenzy, but that was it on the night from the favourites. Overconfidence? Fatigue? Whatever the case, the Netherlands were on their back heels for the entirety of the second half, holding on desperately to a 1-1 draw. Some would argue they merited less than that.