PSG vs. Newcastle UCL Preview and Prediction
The final matchday of the Champions League League Phase ensues with one of the day’s biggest deciding matchups being that of PSG vs Newcastle.
A win for PSG would surely secure them an automatic spot in the Round of 16, while a draw could suffice, but will likely not be enough given Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta’s (all 13 points) lower-end opponents. Newcastle is in the same boat if they want a pass to the Round of 16, although neither side is at risk of being fully knocked out of the competition.
PSG vs. Newcastle UCL Odds and Betting Trends
Paris Saint-Germain confronts Newcastle for the third time in history, with the two teams facing off twice in the 2023 Champions League. Newcastle won the first meeting at home 4-1 before playing to a 1-1 draw at the Parc des Princes. The Parisians have never defeated Newcastle. The reigning UEFA Champions had a remarkable start to the league phase before slipping out of the top three into sixth, yet they are the third-most likely contenders to win the trophy this year (+750).
PSG stands strong at home turf as -190 favourites on the Champions League odds with 20 goals to their name (highest), while Newcastle is the current top-eight dark horse, showcasing a goal differential of +10, and they head to the Parc des Princes as +450 underdogs on the three-way moneyline. A draw at +360 is more likely than a Newcastle win on the road, given that Paris returns with a talented squad similar to their Championship run last year.
Newcastle
The Magpies are surprisingly doing better in the Champions League than they are in the Premier League. They are at a respectable ninth place in England, having just lost their first game to Aston Villa after going unbeaten for three straight. Their last Champions League match against PSV ended victoriously 3-0, helping to propel Newcastle to a potential Round of 16 run if they play their cards right on Wednesday.
Newcastle’s Anothy Gordon (+550 anytime goalscorer) and Harvey Barnes (+350 anytime goalscorer) combined for 11 goals in total, contributing to more than two-thirds of the team’s goals in the competition. The two English internationals will be critical to the team’s success, but are also at risk of being locked down unless teammates such as Yoane Wissa and Joelinton can cause issues for Paris as well.
PSG
PSG has unfortunately made several blunders in recent matches, including being knocked out of the French Cup Round of 32 on January 12 and a recent 2-1 loss to Sporting Lisbon in their last Champions League match. While they aren’t showcasing current “championship-level” results, they still lead Ligue 1 by a small margin and are in a good spot to qualify for the Round of 16.
The fact of the matter is, they need Ousmane Dembele to step up on Wednesday, as the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner has only five Ligue 1 goals and one UCL goal this season as he continues combating hamstring issues. He is the highest probable goalscorer of the match at +120, followed by teammates Goncalo Ramos (+130), Bradley Barcola (+155), Desire Doue (+165), and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+165). PSG has loads of goalscoring talent to rely on, with 11 goals and nine assists between five separate players, all with the absence of Jaoao Neves and Fabian Ruiz due to injury.
UCL Prediction: Who Will Win PSG vs. Newcastle?
Fatigue from the 2025 season has been PSG’s biggest enemy this year, but even against all adversity, they are still one of the most offensively talented teams in all of Europe.
Newcastle may be playing well in the UCL, but PSG can succeed if they shut down Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes. Given the Parisians are at home and are vying for a Round of 16 entry, after not having won a Champions League match since November 26, I’m banking on a 3-1 PSG victory.
