Poland vs. Argentina: 2022 World Cup Odds and Prediction

Daniel Coyle
November 29, 2022

Poland sits perched atop the Group C table posting a 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia last time out, and have now not allowed a goal while going undefeated in four straight outings across all competitions. Argentina overcame a stunning 2-1 tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia with a decisive 2-0 victory over Mexico, but need to pick up at least a point in Wednesday’s contest to remain in the hunt for a spot in the round of 16.

In the wake of Saturday’s victory over El Tri, Argentina have emerged as heavy -253 favourites to take home the win on Wednesday afternoon. Poland lags as a distant +660 underdog on the World Cup odds, while the odds of the total going UNDER 2.5 sit at a lofty -154.

Poland vs Argentina Betting Analysis

Wednesday afternoon’s matchup at Lusail Iconic Stadium marks the first World Cup meeting between these sides since 1978, and the first overall clash since Poland claimed a 2-1 win in a 2011 friendly. The Albiceleste knocked off Poland 2-0 when they met in the second round of the 1978 World Cup, avenging a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Poles in group stage action four years earlier.

Third-place finishers at this tournament on two previous occasions, the Eagles have not allowed a goal during a three-match unbeaten streak in World Cup play, which marks an impressive turnaround after the team lost eight of their previous 10 tournament contests. In addition, the squad’s current four-match unbeaten stretch comes on the heel of a brutal 0-1-3 run in UEFA Nations League play, during which they were outscored by a 11-3 margin.

The Argentines saw an epic 36-match unbeaten streak across all competitions snapped with their tournament-open loss to the Saudis. And while they remain perched as heavy favourites, it is tough to ignore this team’s struggles at the World Cup, where they have won just two of seven contests, a run that started with their los to Germany in the 2014 final.

Poland

Robert Lewandowski’s long-awaited breakthrough at the World Cup finally came in last weekend’s victory over Saudi Arabia. The Barcelona star set up Piotr Zielinski’s opening goal in the 39th minute and followed up with his first career World Cup goal in the 82nd minute to seal the win. Lewandowski’s marker snapped his five-match goalscoring drought with the national side. However, the Polish captain had enjoyed steady production in the weeks leading up to the tourney, scoring five times over his six most recent appearances with Barca.

While Lewandowski has sparked the offence, Wojciech Szczęsny has continued to do a stellar job in the Polish net. The 32-year-old goalkeeper has not surrendered a goal in seven of eight overall outings with both the national side and Juventus, with the lone exception being Juve’s 2-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain back on November 2.

Argentina

Faced with the prospect of a speedy exit from Qatar 2022, Argentina rose to the occasion in Saturday’s date with Mexico. The Albiceleste needed over an hour to finally break through a stingy Mexican defence. Lionel Messi opened the scoring in the 64th minute with his second goal of the tournament, then added to the lead by setting up an Enzo Fernandez’ marker in the 87th minute.

After getting in on all three Argentine goals to date, Messi remains perched as a strong +660 bet to claim Golden Ball honours, trailing only France’s Kylian Mbappe. However, the focus for the 34-year-old legend remains squarely on World Cup glory. To keep the dream alive, Argentina must do a better job at both ends of the pitch, including tightening up defensively after allowing 10 total goals over their past five World Cup matches. However, the Argentine defense largely shut down opponents in recent non-friendlies, outscoring opponents by a wide 18-3 margin in the most recent round of qualifying.