Morocco vs. Spain: 2022 World Cup Odds and Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
December 5, 2022

The round of 16 continues at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar on Tuesday, with Morocco and Spain set to face off a 10 a.m. ET. Morocco was the surprise winner of Group F after knocking over Belgium and Canada and playing to a draw against Croatia. Spain crushed Costa Rica in their group stage opener but ultimately had to settle for second in Group E following a draw against Germany and a loss against Japan.

Spain opens as a -214 favourite to win on the World Cup odds, while Morocco is a +538 underdog.

Spain -204
Draw +323
Morocco +523

Morocco vs. Spain Betting Analysis

These teams have met three times, all in competitive games. They faced off in two qualification matches for the 1962 World Cup, with Spain picking up 1-0 and 3-2 victories. The only other meeting between the teams was at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with the teams playing to a 2-2 draw in group stage action.

Morocco finished the group stage with four goals scored and a plus-3 goal differential. They’re +225 underdogs to open the scoring on Tuesday despite scoring the match’s opening goal in their last two games against Belgium and Canada. Abderrazak Hamdallah and Youssef En-Nesyri each sit at +1200 to open the scoring against Spain. Hamdallah is a +399 anytime scorer, while En-Nesyri is +439.

After scoring nine goals in the group stage, Spain currently sits tied with France and one goal behind England for the tournament lead despite playing one less game than both teams. They enter the round of 16 with a plus-6 goal differential. La Roja is -217 to score first on Tuesday. Alvaro Morata is the favourite to score first at +440. Morata is a +150 anytime scorer.

Morocco

Morocco took seven of a possible nine points in group stage play to become the surprise winners of Group F. Ranked No. 22 in the world, Morocco earned statement wins over World No. 2 Belgium and 2018 World Cup runners-up Croatia. They’re one of just two African nations through to the round of 16, along with Senegal. The Atlas Lions are unbeaten in their last eight games across all competitions, conceding just two goals during that stretch. A win against Spain would not only send Morocco to the quarter-finals for the first time, it would extend their World Cup unbeaten streak to five games, tying Cameroon for longest streak among all African nations.

Morocco isn’t expected to make any changes to the starting XI. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, who pulled out of the Belgium game at the last second because of a sickness, played the full 90 minutes against Canada in the group stage finale and he is expected to go again on Tuesday.

Spain

It was an odd showing in Group E for Spain. La Roja opened the World Cup with a 7-0 blowout win against Costa Rica, but they followed that up with a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Germany before suffering a 2-1 upset loss against Japan. That first win proved to be massively beneficial as Spain advanced to the round of 16 based on goal-differential. Spain was eliminated in the round of 16 at the 2018 World Cup, but they’ve never suffered back-to-back exits at this stage of the tournament.

The trio of Dani Olmo, David Raya and Cesar Azpillcueta all missed Friday’s training session. Olmo was rested after a heavy workload in group stage play. Azpillcueta, who came off at halftime against Japan, is dealing with pain in his calf. There’s been no word on why Raya was held out of practice.