Manchester City vs Arsenal: FA Cup Fourth Round Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
January 23, 2023

This mouth-watering affair not only matters for each club’s domestic cup aspirations but serves as a preview for the two scheduled Premier League games still to be played.

Pep Guardiola’s City side sits as -143 favourites on the FA Cup odds, with the over-under barometer predicted at 2.75.

Manchester City -190
Draw +316
Arsenal FC +461

FA Cup: Manchester City vs Arsenal Betting Analysis

Given City’s stratospheric ascension since Pep Guardiola’s arrival (Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini did heavy lifting to instill a winning culture), it’s no surprise that contests between these clubs have regularly favoured sky blue. Given that all Premier League rivals face each other twice per campaign, it’s stunning to consider that City has not failed against the Gunner since December 2015.

Interestingly, for all the thrashings they’ve launched onto the North London side, it’s Arsenal who have captured the two most recent opportunities in this specific tournament. 2-1 winners in 2017, and then 2-0 in 2020, both of those victories proved to be stepping stones on Arsenal’s route to lifting the trophy both years.

Furthermore, while the clubs have shared the same ambitions for years, only City has reaped the rewards of its efforts in the league. The Gunners, whether under Mikel Arteta or Arsene Wenger’s tutelage, have had to be satisfied with FA Cup silverware. Arsenal have won the tournament four times since 2014, while Manchester has just once over that same span.

Manchester City

Expectations were high heading into 2022-2023, irrespective of which campaign pundits and fans talked about. A club of this size, of this stature, with its brilliant manager and enviable lineup, is supposed to win as much as possible. The FA Cup may not be on the lips of people associated with the club as a top priority when compared to the Premier League and Champions League, but an opportunity to send a message to the Gunners beckons.

As all Premier League sides do, City was granted automatic entrance in the third round. Funnily, in two rounds they’ll have contended against two significant top-flight squads. Round three had them host Chelsea at the Etihad, and the chasm between the sides this year was on display for all to see. Riyad Mahrez, Julien Alvarez and Phil Foden let it rip from multiple set pieces and penalties en route to a 4-0 drubbing.

As for momentum, Guardiola’s group regained some of its swagger over a four-day span by doubling Spurs 4-2 and hammering Wolves 3-0 (thanks to Erling Haaland’s hat trick) in league contests.

Arsenal

Mikel Arteta’s side was not expected to be much of a factor in 2022-2023. Of course, this being the FA Cup, absence in the fourth round would have been an embarrassment, especially since their third-stage opponentswas third-tier club Oxford United. 3-0 winners, they handled the affair with the right balance of class and quality without over-indulging in what was supposed to be an uncomplicated affair anyways.

The modest expectations concerned overall performances. Last season’s late collapse in the league resulted in a lot of pride being swallowed, not to mention a place in the Europa League instead of the illustrious Champions League. But the vocal Spanish manager has his side playing inspiring football, with players like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Edward Nketiah, and Martin Odegaard coming into their own. Surprisingly, they lead the league by five points with a game in hand. Even though this is a cup contest, playing City will serve as another significant litmus test.