Edgar Chaput
April 18, 2023

Inter Milan vs Benfica: Champions League Quarter-Final 2nd Leg Odds, Prediction

Inter Milan and Benfica were engaged in a lively, spirited affair in Portugal last week. There was no shortage of drama in a game that fell in the Italian club’s favour, although 2-0 might have flattered them a bit. Should Inter go through, they’ll play either fellow Serie A rivals Napoli or AC Milan.

The Champions League odds denote the Milan-based outfit as favourite at -109. The Portuguese La Liga visitors are +260 and a draw is +266.

Inter Milano +103
Draw +235
Benfica +260

Inter Milan vs Benfica Betting Analysis

Do not let the 2-0 scoreline fool you. This was not a game dominated by the visiting club. If anything, it sat alongside the AC Milan-Napoli tilt as one of the more fascinating first leg matches. The action was back and forth all game long, with each side creating a host of quality scoring opportunities.

It was also a big moment for the Portuguese club, which was coming off a bad home loss to rivals Porto the previous weekend. Handing a legendary Italian side a loss in the Champions League would have been an excellent turning of the tide, but it was not meant to be. The hosts held the ball 58 per cent of the time and fired 12 times in Andre Onana’s net, but only two forced saves, including one in the dying seconds that would have cut the deficit in half.

Inter took advantage of what came their way, especially on the first goal in the 51^st minute, a marvellous header in the box by Nicolo Barella off a long cross. It remained tight up until the 82nd minute when VAR judged that a Benfica defender deflected a blocked pass with his hand. Romelu Lukaku, who can on as a sub after the break, slotted home the penalty and added a celebration that some criticized as a little over-confident given there’s an entire game left to be played.

Inter Milan

The big win in Portugal didn’t produce good vibes when the club returned home to play Monza at the San Siro. Collecting all three points was imperative for the club’s chase after a top-four finish in Serie A.

Inter fired blanks all day. They sent a whopping 25 attempts toward the Monza goal, but only six forced saves from the keeper. Pretty much everybody had a kick at the can: Lukaku, Denzel Dumfries, Nicolo Barella, Edin Dzeko, etc. But much like the previous week during their stop in Salernitana, they lacked the cutting edge. When clubs can’t cash in their opportunities, the opposition will. Monza broke the deadlock off a corner in the 77^thminute, courtesy of Luca Caldirola. Internazionale would push as best they could but suffered a shock 1-0 defeat and now trail fourth place by two points.

Benfica

In a strange twist, pretty much the same thing happened to Benfica in the Portuguese Liga. They were away to mid-table side GD Chaves with three in their sights to preserve a seven-point lead as title favourites.

A look at the stats sheet reveals eerily similar numbers to what Inter did at home to Monza. 20 total shots, five on target, and overwhelming ball possession. Either the Chaves keeper made brilliant saves, the home defence blocked attempts, or they soared wide. David Neres, Joao Mario and company all had glorious opportunities but could not pull the trigger. And then disaster struck. In the 94th minute Benfica horribly defended a harmless clearance, which allowed Issah Abass to escape on a breakaway and put away the winner, sending the home fans into a frenzy. Worse, Porto won its game, thus cutting Benfica’s lead to four points with plenty of football left to play.