Croatia vs. Italy: Euro 2024 Odds, Prediction

The Blazers remain winless through their first two group stage contests after playing Albania to a 2-2 draw on Thursday that now leaves them facing a must-win situation. Italy failed to capitalize on a golden opportunity to advance out of the group stage while dropping a 1-0 decision to Spain on Thursday and can finish no better than third on the Group B table if they are unable to snap their current nine-match winless streak against Croatia in Monday’s clash at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen, Germany.

The defending champions at this tournament, Italy are listed as slim +130 favourites on the Monday Euro odds. Croatia trails at +200 while the odds of these sides playing to a draw for the fourth time in as meetings sit at +230. The odds of the total going OVER 2.5 are listed at -115, while the UNDER pays out at -120.

Croatia vs Italy Betting Odds

It has been almost a decade since these European powers clashed on the pitch, after playing to a third straight 1-1 draw when they last met in Euro qualifying in 2015. The last time these squads battled in a major tournament was at the 2002 FIFA World Cup, when Croatia eked out a 2-1 comeback victory. Overall, Croatia has found victory in three of nine meetings with Italy. Low scoring has been commonplace over that stretch, with total topping 2.5 just twice in those nine meetings.

While Croatia have held the upper hand against the Italians, they have struggled in recent non-friendly competition, claim victory in just six of 12 competitive matchups since the end of the 2022 World Cup, with this week’s 3-0 loss to Spain representing their worst showing over that stretch. For the defending European champions, an early exit from the Euro would be a national disaster after the squad failed to get out of the group stage at Qatar 2022 and quickly rolled over in two straight appearances in the UEFA Nations League finals. Adding to that pressure are concerns lingering over the Azzurri’s offensive prowess. While their loss to Spain snapped a seven-match unbeaten streak, the Italians have been shutout three times over their past eight contests and scored just three total goals in their past four matches

Croatia

A spot in the knockout stage is there for the taking, but only if Croatia can rekindle an offensive spark. In addition to getting blanked by Spain, the Blazers also needed an own goal from Albania to earn a 2-2 tie in Thursday’s contest. Andrej Kramaric has accounted for the lone Croatian goal scored so far at this tournament, and the 33-year-old veteran’s continued steady play remains crucial to this team’s hope of advancement. Overall, Kramaric has scored seven times in his past eight outings across all competitions and leads all Blazers on the Euro player props as a +270 wager to score anytime on Monday.

Italy

While Italy hold the edge on the table going into Monday’s group stage finale, they are definitely the squad facing the most pressure to produce a convincing victory. But like Croatia, the Azzurri must find ways to score. The Italians received contributions from the backfield in their 2-1 win over Albania, with defender Alessandro Bastoni and midfielder Nicolo Barella producing rare goals. However, the Azzurri’s top goalscorer in Euro qualifying and 2024 friendlies, forward Mateo Retegui, has been used sparingly in favour of Atalanta striker Gianluca Scamacca, who has scored just once in 19 career appearances with Italy’s national side.