Copa America 2024 Betting Predictions, Odds: Who Will Win?

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jun 19, 2024

Soccer: Continental Clasico-Brazil at USA

The 2024 Copa America is days away. Can Argentina defend its title? We preview all the action hosted by the United States.

There really is no rest in soccer. After the clubs duked it out in multiple leagues and competitions from August through June, two continents will have their countries play for supremacy. Euro 2024 has already begun, and now the 2024 Copa America is about to explode on the American stage. Given that the U.S., Mexico, and Canada will co-host the 2026 World Cup, consider this as an amuse bouche.

Questions abound as the latest Copa revs up its engine. Will Lionel Messi help Argentina defend the title it won in 2021? Is this the opportunity for Brazil to rise from the ashes of recent disappointments? Can Mexico make a mark on the international stage? Of course, for fans north of the 49th parallel, how will Canada fair in its second big international competition following Qatar 2022?

Check out our Copa America odds page for all the action. The Argentinians enter as tournament favourites at +175, followed by arch rivals Brazil at +225, then Uruguay at +500.

Copa American 2024 Group Overview, Predictions

16 countries have earned a spot at this summer’s dance. They’re divided into four groups of four. As per usual, the top two sides in each division make it to the knockout rounds. Here is how we believe the action will unfold.

Group A: Argentina, Peru, Chile, Canada

Group A is arguably the one that will get the most eyeballs in Canada. There are two reasons. Number one, that’s where fate ordained the Canadians would fight for their Copa lives. Number two, it’s the group with Argentina, which means Canada will face off against the player many consider to be the G.O.A.T.. To that point, those teams open the competition on Thursday from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Check out our preview of that game here.

Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) will go down as a legend for his play, but another Lionel, surname Scaloni, has earned a reputation too. He’s the national side’s head coach and the man who brought the country back to footballing supremacy on a continental and global level. After years and years of almosts – with Messi on the roster, for that matter – Scaloni coached the team to Copa success in 2021, defeating none other than Brazil in their own backyard. Then came Qatar 2022. Argentina are no longer just a threat because of Messi, but because they are a great side. With Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea), Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool), Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan) and Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa) to name but a few of their roster members, it’s difficult to imagine at what stage they trip up, if they do at all. They are number one in the world as per FIFA rankings, after all.

So what can the competition serve up? Peru comes closest at 32, which isn’t saying much. Then it’s Chile at 42, with Canada sagging behind at 48, a far cry from the glory months of early 2022 (33rd in February that year). The Peruvians have three players honing their skills in Europe, two of which are in the Danish and Swedish leagues. Chile don’t have much more, but they’ve proven to be tricky outings in past competitions.

The question that most people want answered is whether Canada can make it out of Group A. It will be tough. The roster does not lack talent. Alphonso Davies is the undisputed star, but Alistair Johnston and Joel Waterman at the back are also quite good. Jonathan Osorio, Mathieu Choiniere, and Stephen Eustaquio are solid midfielders, and Tajon Buchanan and Jonathan David have the skills to put the ball in the back of the net. But has coach Jesse Marsch had enough time to get this group playing to its fullest abilities? The 0-0 draw in France a couple of weeks ago was encouraging. It’ll have to be, because they start the Copa against Argentina.

Prediction: Argentina and Chile make it out.

Group B: Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela, Jamaica

This seems like Mexico’s group to lose. They’ve come along way from the moribund 2010s when they were ranked as low as 40th in July 2015. Today they are considered the 14th best teeam by FIFA standards. What’s more, Mexico’s reputation is not hurt by the fact that most of its players do not play in Europe. Liga MX is one of the most highly regarded non-European leagues in the world. Cesar Huerta, Roberto Alvarado, Uriel Antuna, and Carlos Rodriguez are part of top flight Mexican rosters.

None of their Group B opponents come close. Ecuador is 31st, Venezuela 54th, and Jamaica 55th. The Ecuadorians will be led by Enner Valencia of Brazil’s Internacional. Moises Caicedo has been developing at Chelsea, and Piero Hincapie just lived through one of football’s greatest campaigns ever at Bayer Leverkussen. No one will confuse them for an amazing side, but they could cause some damage. They feel like a safe bet to finish second.

Unfortunately both Venezuela and Jamaica will have to play out of their minds if they want to reach the knockout phase.

Prediction: Mexico and Ecuador make it out.

Group C: United States, Uruguay, Panama, Bolivia

Host countries often do well at competitions. One of the greatest examples is South Korea at the 2002 World Cup. The United States will need all the home cooking they can get, but it has been a tough past few years and things have not gotten much better under coach Gregg Berhalter. It’s important to remember that the USMNT is currently ranked 11th, which is not bad at all. By the same token, expectations are always high when representing the stars and stripes, and results like the 5-1 flop versus Colombia a few weeks ago are unacceptable.

There is no question that they have a roster with the potential to go deep. Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) is their talisman, Timothy Weah is a fixture for Juventus, as is Weston McKennie, and Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards are all defenders helping out Premier League clubs (Fulham and Crystal Palace).

Not far behind is Uruguay, ranked 15th by FIFA, they’re blessed with many players operating around the world on some of the best teams. Jose Gimenez (Atletico Madrid) serves as captain, Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) brings flair, Rodrigo Bentacour (Tottenham), Darwin Nunez (Liverpool), and the iconic Luis Suarez (Inter Miami).

Panama (45th) and Bolivia (85th) got the short end of the stick with this draw.

Prediction: United States and Uruguay make it out.

Group D: Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, Costa Rica

The fourth group is another greatly imbalanced one. In that sense the 2024 Copa doesn’t really have a group of death. That could be the result of their being fewer teams present, coupled with the fact that the group stage draws are partially determined by a national program’s standing in FIFA.

As for Group D, the conversation is all about Brazil. Anything less than an appearance in the final for the Seleçao will be deemed a failure. True enough, recent tournaments have not gone their way – especially World Cups – but this feels like the dawn of a new, brilliant generation. A lot has changed since 2018 and 2022. Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) is at the height of his powers, as is Rodrygo (Real Madrid). Raphinha is a regular for Barcelona, Danilo is both captain and an important figure at Juventus, Marquinhos suits up for Ligue 1 giants PSG, and Gabriel just had the best season of his career at Arsenal.

Who is going to stop Brazil? Not Colombia, Paraguay, or Costa Rica. That’s not to say the Colombians won’t play well. They’re currently 12th in world rankings and Luis Diaz (Liverpool) is a terribly exciting player, but it seems doubtful they’ll earn the top seed in Group D.

Prediction: Brazil and Colombia make it out.

Copa America 2024: Which Team Will Win the Tournament?

Let’s not beat around the bush. The question “Which team will win the tournament?” is a thinly veiled version of “Who between Brazil and Argentina will win?” Again, that’s not to disrespect Colombia, Uruguay, Mexico, or the United States, but as good as they four sides are and as much as they can have memorable tournaments, they must find a way to get through Brazil and Argentina. It’s just how it is.

Argentina is the simpler pick. Defending Copa champs. Defending world champs. The G.O.A.T. But repeating is difficult. Just look at what befell Spain after two Euros and a World Cup title. With Brazil, they have players who already are or are just about to be total terrors on the world stage. Copa 2021 hurt. It hurt badly.

Brazil one-ups Argentina and wins it all.

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