Champions League Group Stage Predictions, Odds

One of the big events in club soccer every year isn’t a match but rather the late summer draw to determine the UEFA Champions League groups. The big tournament begins on September 19 and 20, although exact matchups have yet to be determined at the time of writing. Said draw was performed on Thursday in Monaco, setting the stage for eight divisions with four clubs each.

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Champions League Group Stages

There is no such thing as a group with nothing to hold one’s interest, but some divisions are more alluring and hype-worthy than others. Let’s take a look are where the cards lay after Thursday’s exercise.

Group A

Bayern Munich (Germany)

Manchester United (Enland)

Galatasaray (Turkey)

Copenhagen (Denmark)

With all due respect to the Danish and Turkish clubs in the group, most eyes will be on Bavarian giants Bayern Munich and Premier League squad Manchester United. The latter have been absent from the tournament for a couple of seasons, but under Erik Ten Hag’s guidance, they find themselves back on Europe’s biggest stage.

Long-time supporters of both sides will remember the legendary 1999 final that saw United score twice late to claim the title and their famous treble. Bayern have spruced up their offence by signing former Spurs attacker Harry Kane. United’s summer activity was not as splashy (Mason Mount, André Onana, Sergio Reguilon) and they failed to pick up the undisputed, dependable striker everyone said they had to buy.

Group A Prediction: Bayern Munich should finish first and Manchester United second. Should United’s away form fail them (which it sometimes does), maybe Galatasaray can sneak into the knockout round.

Group B

Sevilla (Spain)

Arsenal (England)

PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands)

Lens (France)

It’s tempting to argue that Sevilla and Arsenal will get out of Group B, but this division has many subtleties to it. For one, one should not overlook PSV. While they aren’t historically a Champions League powerhouse, they don’t go out meekly either. Furthermore, Sevilla are in thanks to a magical run in last season’s Europa League campaign. They defied all the odds, winning the final against Roma on penalties. Back home, they were a 12th-ranked club in La Liga.

Lastly, there are questions surrounding Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. It’s nice to see them back in the tournament, but this young group has not dealt with Champions League pressure before. Their summer signings (Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Jurrien Timber) have been quiet or are injured.

Group B Prediction: PSV Eindhoven and Arsenal go through. Maybe Sevilla clips Arsenal.

Group C

Napoli (Italy)

Real Madrid (Spain)

Braga (Portugal)

Union Berlin (Germany)

Another division in which two teams should strike more fear than the others. We’re of course referring to Italian champions Napoli and perennial European juggernauts Real Madrid.

What a strange summer for Napoli. The club wins its first scudetto in ages and the manager leaves for greener pastures. Gone is Luciano Spalletti (he now manages the national squad) and in is Rudi Garcia. They reached the quarter-finals last year but were bounced out by AC Milan. Come what may, there’s always a chance with the brilliant Victor Osimhen gunning for goals. Real Madrid strive for European glory with new member Jude Bellingham, who’s had a brilliant start in La Liga.

Group C Prediction: Real Madrid and Napoli should make it through.

Group D

Benfica (Portugal)

Inter Milan (Italy)

Salzburg (Germany)

Real Sociedad (Spain)

This is a tricky one. Before one’s knee-jerk reaction says that last year’s finalists Inter Milan will win the division, remember that Benfica gave the Italian club a run for its money in the quarter-finals. Furthermore, Romelu Lukaku’s time with Internazionale is over as of August 31. Chelsea have loaned him to Roma.

Rafa and Angel di Maria have had brilliant starts this year in Portugal, scoring thrice and twice, respectively. Real Sociedad had been knocking on the Champions League door for a few seasons before finally finishing in the top four back home last year. Union Berlin was the Bundesliga feel-good story of 2022-2023, but one wonders if the buck stops here now that they’ve reached an incredibly difficult competition.

Group D Prediction: Benfica and Inter Milan go through.

Group E

Feyenoord (Netherlands)

Atletico Madrid (Spain)

Lazio (Italy)

Celtic (Scotland)

Another group that’s a bit more difficult to judge. At the very least, one hopes that Celtic fairs better than in 2022-2023 when they finished 0-2-4 with a goal differential of -11.

Lazio are back in the Champions League after a two-year absence, and they’ll going against an always-difficult opponent in Atletico Madrid. For that matter, the latter’s manager, Diego Simeone, is a former Lazio player and won plenty of titles with the Italian club in his day.

Feyenoord returns to the competition for the first time since the 2017-2018 campaign.

Group E Prediction: Lazio and Celtic go through.

Group F

Paris Saint-Germain (France)

Borussia Dortmund (Germany)

AC Milan (Italy)

Newcastle United (England)

The group of death, no questions asked. There’s always one, and for 2023-2024 this is definitely it.

Even without Lionel Messi and Neymar, PSG are still a good club. How can they not be with Kylian Mbappé? Borussia Dortmund heads into its second successive season down a superstar (Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham left in back-to-back summers) yet they always find a way to be a threat to anyone who opposes them. Chalk it up to German efficiency.

AC Milan were semi-finalists last year and still have Rafael Leao to count on, not to mention summer signing Christian Pulisic. And then there is Newcastle, who brings a breath of northern English fresh air to the proceedings, having finished fourth last year in the Premier League.

Group F Prediction: Who knows? More seriously, we’ll go with AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund

Group G

Manchester City (England)

RB Leipzig (Germany)

Red Star Belgrade (Serbia)

Young Boys (Switzerland)

The defending European champions Manchester City find themselves in group G. Failure to make it through would be a calamity. None of the other three clubs should, in theory, present much of a threat to Pep Guardiola’s side even without Kevin De Bruyne (sideline with an injury).

Speaking of not posing a challenge to City, that’s exactly what RB Leipzig were in last year’s Round of 16 matchup. That said, it would be disappointing for them to not finish second. Hey, at least they can’t face City in the Round 16 again! With all due respect, the Swiss Young Boys and Serbian Red Star Belgrade will have to pull special tricks out of their hats to survive Group G.

Group G Prediction: Manchester City and RB Leipzig go through.

Group H

Barcelona (Spain)

FC Porto (Portugal)

Shaktar Donetsk (Ukraine)

Royal Antwerp (Belgium)

Bless Shaktar’s heart. It can’t be easy going through these campaigns given the situation back on home soil. For what it’s worth, it is experienced in matters of European football. They didn’t make it out of the group stage last year, but they played.

Barcelona hopes that 2022-2023 was no more than a bad dream as they didn’t get to the Round of 16 either. Much more will be expected of the Spanish champions and its young core of Gavi, Predi, and Frenkie de Jong. Lest he be overlooked, Ilkay Gundogan is now in town too.

FC Porto should put in a solid effort. They made it to the Round 16 last year and the quarter-finals in 2020-2021.

Group H prediction: Barcelona and FC Porto go through.