Edgar Chaput
July 7, 2023

Canada vs United States Prediction, Concacaf Gold Cup Odds

Both Canada and the United States men’s teams survived their group stage challenges. The U.S. took care of business by thrashing its two last opponents whereas Canada left it late, needing a win over Cuba in the third and final match.

The Concacaf Gold Cup odds have the Americans as -156 favourites to advance, whereas the Canadians are priced at +370. A draw is +285. That situation would lead to extra-time and, if required, a penalty shootout.

Canada vs United States Betting Analysis

These being close regional rivals, it’s understandable that they’ve met on the pitch plenty of times over the decades, albeit rarely on the most important stages of international football.

When CANMNT started to turn the corner in the very late 2010s, that’s when the matches got interesting. The countries have clashed six times in a variety of competitions since 2019 and the USA only holds a 3-1-2 advantage (win-draw-loss). The most famous win for team Canada came in January 2022, a World Cup qualifier which the maple leaf representatives won 2-0, announcing that they were to be taken more seriously than before.

Funny that Canada and the United States should meet so soon after their last game. It was less than a month ago that the same nations fought for the Concacaf Nations League final, with the Americans winning 2-0.

Canada

Heading into their game against Cuba on Tuesday night, John Herdman’s group had experienced a patently mediocre tournament. Two draws, both against sides they probably should have defeated, and captain-goalkeeper Milan Borjan out with an injury.

But Cuba had played miserably through two matches, even worse than Canada. Despite that this is largely a CANMNT’ B-side, they looked marvellous at times against Cuba en route to a much needed 4-2 victory. Junior Hoilett and Jonathan Osorio were flying, both scoring in the first half. Osorio’s goal (27^th) was the finishing touch on wonderful ball movement that started in midfield off a Cuban turnover. It wasn’t a perfect performance. That Cuba earned two penalties, one that could have produced a major momentum swing, is food for thought for Herdman.

Jayden Nelson (47^th) and Liam Milar (61^st) also netted for Canada in the second half, bolstering the team’s lead to 4-1, which is far too much for Cuba to overcome.

United States

The headlines for USMNT entering the Gold Cup were bizarre to say the least, what with the whole Gregg Berhalter saga hovering over the team like a dark cloud. At least until Berhalter officially begins his duties as manager again, the players answer to B.J. Callagan, who has guided the team to some nice wins.

The final group stage game was against Trinidad and Tobago. The U.S. already had four points in the bag, but a win would have confirmed their place in the knockout stages with emphasis. In a nutshell, this was never much of a game. Jesus Ferreira continued his incredible run, scoring a hat trick for the second game in a row, with all three of his markers coming in the first half (14^th, 38^th, and a penalty at 45+2). Teammates Cade Cowell, Gianluca Busio and Brandon Vazquez doubled the lead from 3-0 to 6-0 in a match that highlighted just how wide the gap is between the USA and Trinidad.

There are no two ways about. At this moment the Americans look much more threatening than the Canadians.