Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain: Champions League Preview and Prediction
Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain produced fireworks in last week’s first leg, as the Parisians captured a 5-4 home victory. After leading 5-2, the German side fought back and will feel like they have a great chance to reach their 12th Champions League final in Budapest, Hungary, on May 30.
Luis Enrique’s men squandered their lead, but PSG has progressed from 14 of the last 17 European ties when they won the first leg by a goal or more.
Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain Champions League Odds and Betting Trends
Bayern Munich were small favourites in the first leg, and their odds have extended to -155 on the three-way moneyline. PSG is a +300 underdog, the draw has +425 odds, and both teams share an identical -110 price to qualify for the next round on the Champions League odds. Surprisingly, these two teams have never tied in their 18-game history. The Bavarians have won five of the last seven meetings at home against PSG, and they are also 14-0-3 in their last 17 matches against French sides. Meanwhile, the Parisians are just 4-2-6 in their last 12 games against German squads.
The Over/Under for Wednesday’s semifinal is 4.5; the Over has +110 odds, and the Under carries a -145 price. The first leg produced a UCL semifinal goal record, and we could be in for more goals in this one. Bayern has scored 3+ goals in eight of their previous nine matches at home, and a big reason for that is Harry Kane. The English striker has scored in six straight UCL appearances and now has 17 goals in his last 16 UCL games. I nailed my best bet on him to score last week, and he is now juiced up to -150 to find the back of the net again.
Bayern Munich
The Bundesliga champions continued to fight domestically, as they picked up a 3-3 draw against Heidenheim on Saturday. After trailing 2-0 and 3-2, Michael Olise scored in the 100th minute to save the result. The French international scored in the opening leg against PSG, and he’ll need to play at his best to pull off the comeback. The Germans are now unbeaten in nine consecutive home matches in all competitions, extending their home record to 20-2-1 this season. Their only defeat came against Augsburg in Bundesliga Matchweek 19, and I can’t see them losing this game.
The main way Bayern will win this game is by scoring early and keeping the pressure on the visitors. They’ll need their front three of Kane, Olise, and Luis Diaz to ball out as they did in the opening leg, but the midfield and back four need to tighten up if they want to advance. PSG tore them to pieces in the first 60 minutes last week, but Bayern Munich showed they can keep the French attack at bay in the final 30 minutes. If they can replicate that defensive performance in this game, they’ll be back in another UCL final.
Paris Saint-Germain
Like Bayern Munich, PSG also picked up a draw over the weekend, as they blew a 2-1 lead against Lorient, and the game finished 2-2. Although they haven’t secured the Ligue 1 title just yet, they can wrap things up with one more victory. However, their focus will be on this game in Munich, and they’ve really found a groove away from home. The Parisians have won six straight away games and have gone 3-1-1 on the road in this competition this season, most recently beating Liverpool 2-0.
Ousmane Dembele (+165 to score) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+190 to score) each had two goals in the first leg, and Kvaratskhelia now has seven goals in his last six UCL matches. The attack is unquestionably deadly, but the real concern for the French side is their back line. Achraf Hakimi is out, and Nuno Mendes is doubtful for this game, meaning Enrique will be slotting in his second choice for both outside back positions. Bayern will take advantage of the wings, which could spell trouble for PSG.
Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain?
Taking Kane to score at plus money last week was a no-brainer, but -150 is too heavily juiced to bet on its own in this game. Instead, I’d lean towards betting on Luis Diaz to score (+135), as the Colombian scored in the first leg and now has four goals and two assists in his last six games. However, my best bet is for the Germans to score early and often, which is why I’m betting on Bayern Munich Team Total Over 2.5 (-115).
Best Bet: Bayern Munich Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
Score Prediction: Bayern Munich 3 | Paris Saint-Germain 1