AC Milan vs Internazionale Prediction: Champions League Semi-Final Odds

Edgar Chaput
May 9, 2023

Forgive fans of the Rossoneri for feeling that most of their recent contests have all been Serie A dates. They’ll do battle with eternal rivals Inter in the semi-finals after eliminating domestic champions Napoli in the quarters. It goes without saying that both legs of the tie will be at the San Siro. Technically, AC is the home side for this first game, whereas Inter will “host” next week.

Given their familiarity and general quality this season, this tie is a toss-up. Milan are +165 on the Champions League odds to Inter’s +159. A draw is set at +230.

Inter Milano +143
Draw +181
AC Milan +231

AC Milan vs Internazionale Betting Analysis

The Rossoneri last lifted the biggest trophy in club football in 2007 when they defeated Liverpool 2-1, which itself was a measure of revenge for the epic 2005 final against the same club. In fact, despite the mediocre performances in domestic action, it can still be argued that this is one of Milan’s best campaigns in years. After all, from 2017 through 2021 they competed in the Europa League, a competition some mockingly describe as the bargain bin Champions League.

Much the same can be said about Simone Inzaghi’s side. While Inter have not had to partake in “lower level” European football recently, the point is they haven’t made it this far in the competition since winning it in 2009-2010. From 2018 through 2021 the club was kicked out in the group stages and last season fell in the Round of 16.

This is the first all-Italian Champions League semi-final since 2003 when Milan barely got by Inter on an away goal. Who can forget the 2004-2005 quarter-finals? The second leg ended in the 72^nd minute due to a crowd that was, let’s just say, more boisterous than the authorities felt they needed to be. Milan was awarded a default 3-0 victory, making it 5-0 on the aggregate.

AC Milan

Suffice it to say that it’s been a topsy-turvy season under Stefano Pioli. At the time of this writing, Milan runs the risk of not finishing in the top four domestically, having already been dethroned as champions by Napoli last week. What’s more, the team just above them in the standings is, guess who, Internazionale.

Wouldn’t it be something, therefore, if Milan were to capture European glory and in many respects get the last laugh even if back home things didn’t out as they’d have hoped? That said, they may be heading into the first leg of this tie without the services of Rafael Leao. The Portuguese international, who has scored 13 goals in all competitions this season, only lasted 12 minutes this past weekend against Lazio. Thankfully for them the team still earned a 2-0 victory, thus keeping pace with fourth-place Goals came from Ismaël Bennacer (17^thminute) off a woeful Lazio turnover in their own zone and a brilliant solo charge and shot by Theo Hernandez in the 29^thminute.

Internazionale

The blue Milanese franchise is also dealing with challenges on two fronts. Heading into last weekend’s action they sat fifth and had a date with Jose Mourinho’s seventh-placed Roma at the Stadio Olimpico.

The hosts put as much pressure as they could onto Internazionale, but Inzaghi’s side had the sort of quality to jump over hurdles such as this one. The opening goal of the 2-0 victory came from a Denzel Dumfries low cross into the Roma box that Federico Dimarco tapped in (33^rd minute). The insurance marker came in the 74^th minute when a rather lazy defensive attempt allowed Lautaro Martinez to find a wide-open Romelu Lukaku who confidently slotted the ball past the Roma keeper. The trio of points lifted Inter into a Champions League spot in Serie A standings, although the war is far from over, to say nothing of the business at hand in Europe Wednesday night.