Napoli vs. AC Milan Serie A betting odds, score prediction

Inter Milan sits atop Serie A with eight games to play, but AC Milan and Napoli are just six and seven points behind, respectively, and still have hopes of mounting a comeback for the title. The second and third-place sides face off this Monday in a rubber match, marking their third meeting of the season. While Milan captured three points at home against Napoli in Serie A, Massimiliano Allegri’s men fell against The Partenopei in the Supercoppa Italiana Semifinals. 

With three points on the line, let’s dive into my Napoli vs. AC Milan preview.

Napoli vs. AC Milan Serie A Odds, Betting Trends

There is very little separating these two sides, as Napoli comes into this match as small +145 favourites on the three-way money line, while AC Milan are +195 underdogs. The draw carries +190 odds, and the over/under sits at 2.5, with the over at +125 and the under at -165. As stated above, each side has a win against the other this season, but Milan is chasing their first winning league double over Napoli since the 2010/11 season. 

Antonio Conte’s side is the only team in Serie A without a home defeat, as Napoli is 10-4-0. However, AC Milan has 32 accrued points on the road this season (9-5-1), and only league-leaders Inter Milan (34) has more road points this season. That said, Massimiliano Allegri has historically struggled against Conte, as the Italian coach is just 2-2-6 against his Napoli counterpart all-time. The over is 10-4 in Napoli’s 14 home games this season, and they’ve seen at least goals in six straight home contests and in eight of their previous nine Serie A matches.

Napoli

The Partenopei are seven points off the top of the league, but they’ve won four consecutive games in Serie A and still have title hopes. Although Conte’s men posted a disappointing result in the Champions League, they’ve found their form domestically once they were eliminated from the European competition. Napoli has gone 6-1-1 in Serie A since they failed to qualify for the UCL knockout stage, and their remaining schedule is favourable. 

After this game against Milan, Lazio (home) and Como (away) are their only two opponents in the top eight of Serie A. Conversely, Inter Milan will still face AS Roma, Como and Lazio on top of still having to face Como in the second leg of the Coppa Italia Semifinal after the first leg finished 0-0. Additionally, five of their remaining eight Serie A matches are at home, so they can put some serious pressure on Inter if they continue to win. If they don’t come away from this game with AC Milan with three points, they can likely kiss their title hopes goodbye.

AC Milan

Although I’m quite optimistic about Napoli’s chances of mounting a comeback in Serie A, AC Milan is actually one point closer to the top and recently beat Inter 1-0 on March 8. Like Napoli, AC Milan only has to focus on Serie A, and their remaining schedule is just as easy. Their only remaining matches against teams in the top eight are Juventus and Atalanta, but both of those games will be played at home, where they’ve gone 9-4-2.

Rafael Leão (+290 to score) has taken on a bigger role for Milan in recent months, as he has started in 10 of 12 games since the turn of the new year. The Portuguese attacker leads Milan in Serie A scoring with nine goals in 22 games, and I won’t be surprised if he records his 10th goal of the season on Monday. 

Serie A Prediction: Who Will Win Napoli vs. AC Milan?

Whoever loses this game won’t have a chance to win Serie A this season, and a draw more or less ends both teams’ hopes of hoisting the trophy. Therefore, I expect both teams to go for the win if they’re tied late in the second half, and I give Napoli the edge because of their home advantage and Conte’s history against Allegri. Fifteen of the last 20 combined matches between these squads have featured at least two goals, and Napoli hasn’t lost at home since December 8, 2024. My best bet is on Napoli +0.5 and over 1.5 Goals (-125).

Best Bet: Napoli +0.5 and Over 1.5 Goals (-125)

Score Prediction: Napoli 2 | AC Milan 1