Newcastle vs. Sunderland English Premier League Preview and Prediction
The English Premier League is beginning to come down to the wire, with exactly eight matches left for teams to make their final stand. For this weekend’s itinerary, Newcastle shift their focus to securing as high a league position as possible. However, their local rivals Sunderland will hope to foil those plans. Sunderland heads to St. James Park this Sunday at 8 a.m. ET to challenge Newcastle in another epic Tyne-Wear derby, one of England’s grittiest rivalries.
Newcastle vs. Sunderland EPL Odds and Betting Trends
Out of the last 10 derbies since 2012, Newcastle has only won once, which came in the FA Cup third round in 2023/24. Sunderland has claimed victory seven times, including their last Premier League meeting in December 2025. There have been just two draws since then, but the last eight consecutive ties since 2001/02 have all ended 1-1. This fixture has not exceeded three goals in total in recent times; the last time it did was in 2010/11, in a 5-1 Newcastle win.
Newcastle are solid -150 home favourites for this contest on the Premier League odds, while Sunderland enters this one at +400 odds. Out of the last 10 Tyne-Wear derby results, five ended with three goals, so the Over 2.5 takes a slight edge at -120 compared to the Under.
Sunderland
If a fifth-round FA Cup exit to Port Vale wasn’t soul-crushing enough, Sunderland’s return to the Premier League was met with a 1-0 shutout defeat to Brighton last Saturday. The season started well for the Black Cats, but they are now down in 13th place with a 10-10-10 record, having lost three of their last five. The team is no stranger to close results, winning just three of their games by more than one goal, while seeing six of their draws end 1-1. They lack offensive capabilities as they record just 30 goals this season, the second-lowest count in the league behind Nottingham Forest.
Only Brian Brobbey (five goals this season) and Wilson Idor (four goals this season) may have some influence on getting their team on the scoresheet, with odds to score anytime at +310 and +350, respectively. Sunderland’s Granit Xhaka (+1000), Enzo Le Fee (+650), and Nordi Mukiele (+600) have also combined for 13 assists in total this season.
Newcastle
The Magpies’ Champions League run is officially over, after they suffered a 7-2 thrashing at the hands of Barcelona in the second leg of their Round of 16 bout. However, the Magpies have been an absolute menace this season, especially at home, and their only competition left this season is the Premier League. They did upset Chelsea last weekend in a 1-0 victory, as well as Manchester United 2-1 on March 4, helping them kick off a two-game win streak in the EPL. After facing tough consecutive opponents of United, City, Barcelona, and Chelsea for four games in a row in all competitions (FA, EPL, UCL), Newcastle will hope to have an easier time of it against their rivals.
The team’s offence is much better than Sunderland’s (43 goals), although they’ve conceded eight more than their opponents. While the team will be missing top scorer Bruno Guimaraes (nine this season), Nick Woltemade is the highest likely goalscorer at +185 after netting seven in the EPL.
EPL Prediction: Who Will Win Newcastle vs. Sunderland?
Now is Newcastle’s time to shine, as everything lines up in their favour. They play at home and will feel obligated to win after their upsetting loss to Barcelona. The team has had an extremely tough schedule since February, and will be pleased to face their Sunderland rivals.
Sunderland may have won the last meeting 1-0 back in December, but St. James Park’s atmosphere will be daunting. They’ve only won one of their last five EPL games and lack real goalscoring answers if Newcastle gets on the scoresheet.
All things considered, I’m expecting Newcastle to win a close contest 2-1.