Liverpool vs. Chelsea English Premier League Preview and Prediction
Liverpool will host Chelsea in matchday 36 this Saturday with both teams clamouring for a win amid their disappointing seasons. After winning the EPL in his first season in charge, Arne Slot’s squad sits in fourth place with three matches to go, which doesn’t sound too far off the pace. However, looking closer, they trail first-place Arsenal by 18 points and haven’t been in the title race since dropping four in a row and nine of 12 from the end of September to November.
On the flip side, Chelsea are ninth on the EPL table — sitting outside next year’s European competitions by three points. They are in must-win territory, but I’m not confident they’ll leave Anfield with a result.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea English Premier League Odds and Betting Trends
Liverpool are -115 on the three-way moneyline, while Chelsea are a +285 underdog and the draw sits at +300 on the EPL odds. The home team is unbeaten in nine consecutive EPL meetings between these squads, taking all three points in four straight head-to-head matches. Chelsea have beaten the Reds in two straight, but both of those wins came at Stamford Bridge.
The over/under is 3.5, as the over has a +105 price tag compared to the under at -130. Four of the last five EPL meetings featured at least three goals, but only three of the last 11 saw four goals or more. During that stretch, there were six matches with two goals or fewer, so there aren’t always fireworks when the Reds and Blues battle. For what it’s worth, Liverpool has scored six goals against Chelsea in the last two meetings at Anfield.
Liverpool
To say this season has been a disappointment for Liverpool would be an understatement. After winning the EPL last season and spending over $550 million in the summer transfer window, Liverpool are fighting for the final Champions League spot. Last week’s 3-2 defeat at Manchester United was salt in the wound, as it marked the first time Liverpool have lost both EPL meetings against Manchester United and Manchester City since 1913. Even with 18 defeats this season, recent reports say that owners Fenway Sports Group is still backing Slot and that he’ll be back in charge next season.
As bad as things have been for Liverpool, a win on Saturday would all but guarantee a spot in the Champions League next season. They currently lead sixth-place Bournemouth by six points with three matches to go and are ahead by six in goal differential. Before last week’s defeat, the Reds were playing well in the EPL, beating Crystal Palace and Fulham at home, as well as Everton on the road. Chelsea haven’t beaten Liverpool twice in the same season since 2013/14, and it will be extremely difficult to do so in this one.
Chelsea
When it comes to the Premier League, Chelsea have been in a complete free fall. The Blues have dropped six consecutive EPL matches, most recently losing 3-1 at home to 16th-place Nottingham Forest on Monday. Manager Liam Rosenior was fired after their 3-0 road defeat at Brighton on April 21, and interim manager Calum McFarlane’s first game ended in a 1-0 victory over Leeds in the FA Cup. It appears that Chelsea have all of their eggs in one basket, which is the FA Cup final against Manchester City on May 16.
Despite sitting in ninth place, Chelsea can still secure European soccer next season. A seventh-place finish would secure a spot in the Europa Conference League, while sixth is for a place in the Europa League. Chelsea only trails sixth-place Bournemouth by four points, so they will need every point they can get for this season to not be a complete wash. It will be an uphill battle, as their last win at Anfield was in 2021.
English Premier League Prediction: Who Will Win Liverpool vs. Chelsea?
Both squads have their sights set on securing a spot in European soccer next season, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue. Liverpool have won five of their previous seven competitive home games by at least two goals and are 5-1-1 in that span. Meanwhile, Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 top-flight contests, and I don’t see that changing in this one. Back the Reds to score multiple goals in a home victory.
Best Bet: Liverpool ML (-115)
Score Prediction: Liverpool 3 | Chelsea 1