Arsenal vs. Tottenham English Premier League Preview and Prediction
Matchday 27 of the English Premier League kicks off Saturday morning, but the match of the weekend isn’t until Sunday, as we have the North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham at 11:30 a.m. ET.
It’s been a tale of two stories for these sides, as the Gunners sit at the top of the EPL table with 58 points while Spurs are 16th in the league (29 points). A big plus for Spurs is that this game occurs at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and they’ll need every home supporter to get behind the team.
Tottenham is just five points above the relegation zone, but after the dismissal of their manager, Thomas Frank, following their most recent defeat to Newcastle, I expect the players to respond. Let’s dive into our Arsenal vs. Tottenham preview and cover what’s worth watching on Sunday.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham English Premier League Odds and Betting Trends
Arsenal are the clear favourites on the EPL odds in this game, as they carry -180 odds on the three-way moneyline, while Tottenham is a +500 underdog, and the draw sits at a +310 price. The Over/Under is 2.5, but the Over (-125) is slightly juiced compared to the Under (+100). In the goal-scoring markets, it’s all Arsenal players, as seven of the eight players with the shortest odds to score are Gunners, and a Spurs player doesn’t pop up on the list until Richarlison (+320).
As good as Mikel Arteta’s men have been this season, they’re just 2-2-1 in their last five EPL contests. Although Spurs haven’t won at home since December 6, they’ve been in close games. Eight of their 11 losses in the EPL came by a single goal, and four of the last five meetings with Arsenal were decided by a goal or less. The Gunners aren’t winning by wide margins recently either; 11 of their last 15 matches in the league have been decided by a goal or less, and although they beat Spurs 4-1 at home earlier this season, I expect this match to be much closer.
Arsenal
They’ve earned the name ‘Boring Arsenal’ for a reason. As good as this Arsenal team is, their style of play is extremely dry, and a large amount of their goals this season are coming from set pieces. Arsenal has 16 of their 52 goals in the league (30.7 per cent) coming from a set piece this season, which is the most in the EPL. Interestingly enough, Spurs have 13 goals from set pieces (tied for second in the EPL), so I don’t see the Gunners having as big an advantage from a dead ball as they typically would.
Although Arsenal is struggling, I expect them to lay everything on the line in this one. They don’t have to play again until next weekend and cannot afford to continue to drop points, as Manchester City has a game in hand and only sits five points behind. The pressure is on Arteta’s men, and although Spurs are nearing the relegation zone, I’m expecting the team to get a bump with a new manager in charge.
Tottenham
Thomas Frank was supposed to bring Spurs back to glory, but after 38 games in charge, he was shown the door. Tottenham announced that new manager Igor Tudor will take over until the end of the season, and he’s done well guiding teams in crisis. At clubs where he’s been in charge for 10 matches or more, Tudor has won at least four of the opening 10 games, but he’s won at least six of his first 10 in his last three managerial jobs (Marseille, Lazio, and Juventus). In those last three roles, he’s gone 18-7-5 in the first 10 matches, so I’m expecting positive results for Spurs in the short future.
As bad as Tottenham has played this season, they have enough talent to keep this game competitive. With no FA Cup and no midweek action, Tottenham will be incredibly well-rested, and although they’ll still be playing with Cristian Romero due to a four-game suspension, they could get Richarlison and Pedro Porro back in the lineup.
English Premier League Prediction: Who Will Win Arsenal vs. Tottenham?
As good as Arsenal has been this season, I cannot see them winning by a wide margin in this game. Additionally, Tudor has proven how he can stabilize squads in crisis, and at some point, the Spurs must show some life to avoid relegation. When facing Arsenal, Tottenham has won, drawn, or lost by fewer than two goals in 12 of their last 15 meetings. Therefore, I’ll take Tottenham +1 (-125) and will slightly sprinkle the Draw (+310), as I expect this game to end 1-1 (+550).
Best Bet: Tottenham +1 (-125)
Score Prediction: 1-1 (+550)