Arsenal vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Odds, Picks: Gunners open as heavy home favourites

We’re only in Matchday 3, but we have an enormous tilt this Sunday, as Arsenal hosts Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium in the first North London-meets-West London derby of the season. Both sides arrive with a perfect record to defend. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have won their opening two matches without conceding, while Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea have matched them point-for-point, just with considerably more goals flying in at both ends. 

It’s a rare early-season case of a genuine title-race litmus test in Matchweek 3, and the betting markets have taken notice. 

Arsenal vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds and Betting Trends

Arsenal are the clear favourites here, priced at -140 on the three-way moneyline, with the draw out at +285 and Chelsea considerable +380 underdogs. The total sits at 2.5 goals on the EPL odds, with the over favoured at -145, and the under carrying a +115 price. 

With both teams’ attacking output so far, Both Teams to Score is priced at -155. That combination, a strong home favourite and a total that isn’t blown out, tells you the market trusts Arsenal’s defence as much as it questions Chelsea’s.

Arsenal

Arsenal have been the model of control to open the season. A 3-0 home win over Coventry City on the opening weekend was followed by a tighter 1-0 victory at Aston Villa, settled by Bukayo Saka’s 59th-minute strike after a goalless first half. Four goals scored – zero conceded – and two clean sheets built on David Raya’s goalkeeping and Gabriel Magalhães’ marshalling of the back line have Arsenal level with Manchester City and Hull City at the top of the table. 

The one complication for Arteta is at centre-back: both Jurrien Timber and William Saliba are ruled out through injury, which forces a reshuffle behind a midfield anchored by Declan Rice. However, we could see the Gunners’ new signing, Ezri Konsa, slide into a starting CB role. Arsenal have also won three of their last five meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, including a 2-1 win at the Emirates in March and a 1-0 Carabao Cup victory over these same opponents in February. Chelsea have not beaten Arsenal in any of those five games.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s start under new manager Xabi Alonso, hired in May to replace the sacked Liam Rosenior, has been just as perfect on paper, if considerably more chaotic in practice. João Pedro’s 35-second opener kicked off a 3-2 win at Fulham on Matchday One, with Cole Palmer and debutant Morgan Rogers also on the scoresheet, before a wild 4-3 win over Brighton at Stamford Bridge saw Chelsea race into an early lead through Roméo Lavia, Pedro Neto and João Pedro again, with Palmer sealing it in the 74th minute. Seven goals scored is the best return in the league through two matches, but five conceded is a real concern heading into a trip to the Emirates, and the timing is rough: Chelsea will be without Jordan Henderson, Marco Palestra and Moisés Caicedo – all out through injury – thinning out a midfield that’s now dealing with Enzo Fernández’s departure to Manchester City.

History isn’t on Chelsea’s side, either. Arsenal have won four, drawn one and lost none of their last five meetings with the Blues across competitions, a run stretching back to a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in November. Alonso’s attacking approach has produced goals in bunches so far, but it’s also leaked five in two matches against considerably weaker opposition than what’s waiting on Sunday.

Premier League Prediction: Who Will Win Arsenal vs. Chelsea?

Best bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes and Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

Arsenal’s defence has been excellent, but it will likely be a new pairing of centre-backs against a Chelsea front line that’s scored seven goals in two matches. I like Arsenal to win this given their recent head-to-head dominance and home advantage, but Chelsea have shown they can hurt teams even in matches they lose, and BTTS tied with over 2.5 at even money looks like the value play.

Final score prediction: Arsenal 2 | Chelsea 1