Toronto FC vs. Nashville SC: MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions

Toronto FC’s wild 4-4 draw with the Chicago Fire on Saturday extended their unbeaten run to six matches, and now the reward for that form is a Wednesday date with the best team in Major League Soccer.

Nashville SC arrive at BMO Field a full 10 points clear at the top of the overall standings, having lost just twice all season, and they’re fresh off a scoreless draw at NYCFC in which they controlled the game without finding a breakthrough. Toronto, by contrast, haven’t kept a clean sheet in ages but have somehow ground out results anyway. 

Something has to give in one of these trends, so let’s get into my Toronto FC vs. Nashville SC preview.

Toronto FC vs. Nashville SC MLS Odds and Betting Trends

The market treats this as a competitive road favourite spot rather than a blowout. Nashville are priced at +125 to win on the MLS odds, Toronto sit at +185, and the draw has +250 odds. The Over/Under is 2.5, but the Over is juiced to -145 compared to a +115 price on the Under. 

Toronto have been involved in an avalanche of goals lately; their last two results total 15 goals between both teams. Nashville’s front three of Sam Surridge, Hany Mukhtar and Cristian Espinoza have combined for 26 of the visitors’ 47 goals this season, so we could see that trio flying on Wednesday night.

Nashville SC

There isn’t much to nitpick about Nashville’s season. BJ Callaghan’s side sit first overall at 53 points from a 16-5-2 record, have won four of their last five, and their only two losses all year have come against Chicago and Orlando. Sam Surridge leads the league’s most productive attack with 13 goals, Hany Mukhtar has added 10 with six assists, and Cristian Espinoza has been the primary creator with nine assists of his own. 

The main absence going forward is Warren Madrigal, who has five goals but is out with a lower-body injury, while Andy Najar will also sit out after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season against NYCFC. Daniel Lovitz is expected to slot into the back four in his place, with Matthew Corcoran a candidate to be recalled into midfield. History leans Nashville’s way too. They’ve won six of the 12 all-time meetings with Toronto to the Reds’ three, including a 2-1 win at BMO Field last season.

Toronto FC

Josh Sargent was the story on Saturday, scoring a hat-trick as Toronto rallied from behind twice to salvage a point against Chicago, with Derrick Etienne Jr. completing the comeback deep into stoppage time. It’s the latest chapter in an unusual stretch for Robin Fraser’s club: they’re unbeaten in six, but four of those results have been draws, and the defence has been leaking goals at an alarming rate even as the attack finally finds its footing. Sargent’s hat-trick pushed him to seven goals on the season, one clear of Dániel Sallói, and the two will need to carry the scoring load again with Djordje Mihailovic expected to miss out after picking up an injury against Chicago. Derrick Etienne is in line to start in his place, with the rest of the XI otherwise unchanged. 

The Reds have a genuinely useful record hosting Nashville specifically, with one win and two draws in their last five meetings at BMO Field, but a defence that’s conceded four goals in back-to-back matches doesn’t inspire confidence against a Nashville attack this dangerous.

MLS Prediction: Who Will Win Toronto FC vs. Nashville SC?

Best bet: Nashville Team Total Over 1.5 (-105)

Toronto’s backline has been porous for weeks, Nashville’s front three is one of the most productive in the league, and both teams just played entertaining, goal-filled matches. I’d rather ride the visitors to score early and often than fight the market on the winner here. Nashville have been too good for too long to fade, but Toronto have shown they can trade goals with anyone right now, which points to another high-event match rather than a nervy defensive one.

Final score prediction: Nashville SC 3 | Toronto FC 2