Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid La Liga Preview and Prediction
With just 10 weeks left in La Liga’s 2025/26 campaign and trailing by nine points, there’s not much hope of third-place Atletico Madrid catching their rivals, second-place Real Madrid, in the standings. However, Atletico are in the perfect position to play spoiler.
The two sides meet in league play for the second time this season when the Madrid derby takes place at the Bernabeu Stadium on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET.
Both sides just secured a quarterfinal spot in the Champions League after eliminating a Premier League squad. The Blancos sent Manchester City packing for the fourth time in five years, winning 2-1 at home on Tuesday to advance.
Atletico fell to Tottenham on Wednesday, 3-2, but advanced thanks to a dominating home performance the week before.
Kylian Mbappe’s return and Thibaut Courtois’ possible exit highlight this latest derby matchup.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Odds and Betting Trends
With the two rivals splitting their last six meetings (2-2-2), Real Madrid are -106 favourites at home on the La Liga odds. Atletico are available at +250 odds, and the draw is currently listed at +300. Mbappe is -120 to score and -188 to have some sort of goal contribution on Sunday.
The Blancos have won four straight in all competitions, while Atletico are 7-2-1 in their last 10 matches across all competitions. They hammered Real Madrid at the Metropolitano, 5-2, in September, but the Blancos got revenge there with a 2-1 Supercopa triumph in January.
Real Madrid
Interim coach Alvaro Arbeloa has overseen a side that has won 10 of 12 league contests. Mbappe’s participation is critical. He came on as a sub in the second half against Man City after missing nearly a month.
He leads La Liga with 23 goals, and he’s added another 13 in Champions League contests. Vinicius Junior, who had a brace in the midweek victory over Man City, has scored nine league goals and assisted on five others.
Federico Valverde has been hot of late. He has five goals in his past four games, including a hat trick in the first leg win over Man City, and another last week in a 4-1 league triumph against Elche.
Courtois, who has started every La Liga contest this season, is dealing with a thigh injury and may not be able to play.
Atletico Madrid
Atleti have four straight wins in La Liga and just advanced over Tottenham, so coach Diego Simeone’s squad is in a good place right now despite being nine points behind their rivals.
Julian Alvarez, who has 17 goals and eight assists in all competitions, is the man to watch for Atletico. He paced the squad’s five-goal onslaught against the Blancos in September with a brace.
Alexander Sorloth and Antoine Griezmann are both on the wrong side of 30 now, but they are still contributing at a high level with a combined 28 goals and five assists. Sorloth has scored in both derby matches this season.
La Liga Prediction: Who Will Win Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid?
This one should be close, especially as Real Madrid has much more to lose. League leaders Barcelona are probably sending bottles of wine to encourage Atletico to come to their aid.
However, this match is at the Bernabeu, and the Blancos are virtually unbeatable there with five wins in their past six league matches. Look for Real Madrid to get the better of Atleti 2-1.
