Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona La Liga Preview and Prediction
After both squads were eliminated from the Copa del Rey midweek, Athletic Bilbao will host Barcelona in Matchweek 27 of La Liga. The Catalans sit atop the league with a four-point cushion after Real Madrid lost last weekend against Getafe. A win here would bolster their title hopes, but Bilbao has European dreams of their own. The Basque squad currently sits ninth in the league and needs to finish in the top six of La Liga to secure a spot in a European competition next season.
Let’s dig into the best betting angles for Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 7.
Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona La Liga Odds and Betting Trends
Athletic Bilbao enter this contest as +380 home underdogs on the La Liga odds, while Barcelona are the -160 road favourites and the draw carries +320 odds. Although Hansi Flick’s side has dropped two consecutive road matches in all competitions, they’ve owned this matchup lately. Barcelona is 8-1-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, and their only loss came in extra time of the 2024 Copa del Rey.
Oddsmakers are expecting goals in this game; the over/under is 3.5, with the over slightly juiced to +120 and the under carrying a -150 price. Two players that could contribute to the scoreline are Barcelona’s Yamine Lamal (+125 to score) and Bilbao’s Iñaki Williams (+320). Yamal has three goals and two assists in Barca’s last three matches, while he assisted two goals when the Catalans won the first meeting this season 4-0. Although Williams has just two goals in 18 La Liga games, he’s found the back of the net against Barcelona seven times in his career and will need to step up since his brother, Nico Williams, will miss this game with a groin injury.
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao can’t feel very confident entering this matchup after falling to Barcelona 5-0 in the Super Cup and 4-0 in La Liga earlier this season. The Basque squad needs points to keep their European hopes alive, but I’m not confident that they will pick up a positive result in this one. Their last win in regulation against the Catalan giants came back in the 2020 Copa del Rey, and they have just two wins in their last 19 La Liga home matches (seven draws and 10 defeats). If they want to secure three points, they’ll likely need to find the back of the net at least twice, as they’re 4-7-15 when they’ve scored one goal or less this season.
Without Nico Williams in the lineup, Bilbao lacks scoring threats up top. Gorka Guruzeta leads the squad with six goals and one assist, while Williams, Roberto Navarro and Álex Berenguer are the only other players in the squad with five or more goal contributions. Unless Barcelona plays well below its best, it’s hard to see Ernesto Valverde’s squad coming away with points.
Barcelona
Although Atletico Madrid eliminated Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, Hansi Flick’s squad almost came back from their 4-0 deficit after the first leg, winning the second 3-0. They’ve clearly shown new life after falling to Atletico and Getafe in back-to-back games two weeks ago, as they have three straight wins – outscoring their opponents 10-1. They’re no longer in the Copa del Rey, but they can now focus all of their efforts on winning the league and Champions League.
The only concern for Barcelona is that they’ve allowed a goal in five consecutive road contests. Additionally, each of their last six road matches has had more than 2.5 goals, and that trend should continue because Barca has 26 goals of their own in their last 10 matches. Yamal is obviously the main threat for Flick’s side, but Marc Bernal (+525 to score) scored twice against Atletico midweek and in the Catalans’ 3-0 victory against Levante on February 22.
La Liga Prediction: Who Will Win Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona?
I’m sure you can see where I’m going with this one, but my main Athletic Bilbao vs. Barcelona prediction is for the La Liga leaders to win convincingly. They need to keep the pressure on Real Madrid, which is why I’m backing Barcelona to win with over 2.5 goals at +110 odds. Eleven of their last 12 victories and four of their previous five wins against Bilbao have featured at least three goals.
Best Bet: Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals (+110)
Score Prediction: Barcelona 3 | Athletic Bilbao 1 (+1100)
