FIFA World Cup 2026 Odds, Prediction: Tunisia vs. Japan Betting Picks
Group F Matchday 2 wraps up in the early hours of Sunday morning when Tunisia and Japan meet at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. Tunisia arrive in crisis after losing to Sweden 5-1 in the opener, which was compounded by their coach being sacked and replaced by Hervé Renard with barely a week’s preparation time.
Japan earned a creditable 2-2 draw against the Netherlands and need only a win to take control of the group. The Samurai Blue have won every competitive meeting against Tunisia, and the gulf in squad quality looks wider than ever heading into this one.
Check out our full list of live 2026 World Cup betting odds.
Tunisia vs. Japan FIFA World Cup: How to Watch and Match Info
- Time: Sunday, June 21 at 12 a.m. ET
- Stadium: Estadio BBVA (Monterrey, Mexico)
- TV: TSN
- Weather: 21.1°C, partly cloudy, 40 per cent chance of late-night showers
Tunisia vs. Japan Betting Odds
Japan are -190 favourites on the three-way moneyline, with Tunisia available at the long shot price of +600. The draw sits at +310. Goal totals lean toward a low-scoring affair, with Over 2.5 priced at +110 and Under 2.5 at -135. Clearly the oddsmakers expect Tunisia to figure things out after their embarrassing opener.
Tunisia vs. Japan Predicted Starting XI Lineups
Tunisia Predicted Starting XI: 4-3-3
Dahmen
Valery | Talbi | Rekik | Abdi
Skhiri | Mejbri | Khedira
Tounkti | Mastouri | Ayari
Japan Predicted Starting XI: 3-4-2-1
Suzuki
Ito | Taniguchi | Watanabe
Nakamura | Kamada | Kaishu Sano | Doan
Maeda | Kubo
Ueda
Tunisia FIFA World Cup Odds and News
Tunisia’s opening defeat to Sweden was as damaging off the pitch as on it. Goalkeeper Abdelmouhib Chamakh was culpable for at least two goals, and coach Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed within hours of the final whistle. His starting lineup made no sense, as he had called up four wingers and three strikers but elected for a five-back defence. His substitutions were illogical as well, so Hervé Renard was parachuted in as his replacement, but has under a week to prepare.
Central midfielder Hannibal Mejbri and defender Omar Rekik, who scored Tunisia’s consolation, were the relative bright spots against Sweden. But Tunisia have conceded 11 goals across their last three competitive outings, including a 5-0 defeat to Belgium in a pre-tournament friendly, and Renard simply does not have enough time to fix the structural defensive problems.
Japan FIFA World Cup Odds and News
Japan’s performance against the Netherlands was exactly what manager Hajime Moriyasu would have hoped for. They ceded possession in a 60-40 split but never looked overrun, with Keito Nakamura leading all players in shots and Daichi Kamada providing the late equalizer in the 89th minute. Substitute Junya Ito created three chances in under 30 minutes after coming on, underlining the depth Moriyasu can call upon.
Japan has no injury concerns and is expected to name the same starting XI from the Netherlands game. The key question is whether to rotate given Japan’s comfortable group position, but with three points here effectively booking a knockout-stage place, expect Moriyasu to go for the win.
Tunisia vs. Japan Player Odds and Props
- Keito Nakamura (JPN) to Score (+450): The Reims winger was Japan’s most dangerous player against the Netherlands. Against a Tunisia backline that conceded five to Sweden, Nakamura’s directness from left midfield will make him one of the most dangerous players on the pitch.
- Aymen Dahmen (TUN) Over 3.5 Saves (-110): Dahmen didn’t start against Sweden, but he should slide into the starting XI after Abdelmouhib Chamakh’s poor performance. He’ll need to stand on his head if Tunisia wants any chance of winning this game.
World Cup 2026 Bracket and Futures
Group F standings: Sweden top on three points, Japan and Netherlands level on one, Tunisia bottom on zero with a -4 goal difference. A Japan win here moves them to four points and into the knockout stage, and they currently have -650 odds to qualify and +250 odds to win the group. For Tunisia, this is their last chance. A win would definitely flip this group around, but they carry +600 odds to qualify for the knockout stage, and another beatdown is more likely.
Tunisia vs. Japan Score Prediction
Best bet: Japan to win to nil (+120)
Japan should get back on track here, but I expect Tunisia to improve from their opening game against Sweden. Leading up to the tournament, Japan held Ghana, Bolivia, Scotland, England, and Iceland scoreless, and even though they gave up two to the Netherlands, the Dutch only produced 0.79 xG. Eleven of their last 13 competitive wins have come with a shutout, and I’ll back that trend against a Tunisian squad in free fall.
Final score prediction: Tunisia 0 | Japan 2