2023 World Junior Hockey Championship Quarterfinal: Canada vs. Slovakia Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
January 1, 2023

Canada has put a surprise tournament-opening loss behind them at the 2023 World Junior Hockey Championship and finished the preliminary round in second place in Group A. The host nation has now won three straight games with blowout victories over Germany and Austria and a 5-1 win over Sweden on Saturday. Next up for Canada is Monday night’s quarterfinal in Halifax as they prepare to face Slovakia, who finished third in Group B with two wins, an overtime/shootout loss and a regulation loss.

Canada is favoured to win by 3.5 goals, while the total sits at 7.5 on the IIHF odds.

2023 World Junior Hockey Championship Quarterfinal Betting Odds

These teams have met nine times over the last 10 World Junior Hockey Championships, with Canada winning all nine games by a combined score of 52-10. They met in the preliminary round of last year’s tournament which ended in an 11-1 victory for Canada. The last time the teams met in the quarterfinals was a 6-1 Canadian win in 2020.

Canada continues to remain the gold medal favourites, sitting at -112 to win the tournament. In contrast, Slovakia is a long shot at +4865. Canada owns the all-time record for most gold medals (19) at this tournament and most total medals (34). Slovakia has medalled twice in the tournament, winning bronze in 1999 and 2015.

For Monday’s quarterfinal matchup, Canada is -435 to open the scoring, while Slovakia is +230.

Team Canada

The Canadians punched their ticket to the quarterfinals with a dominant victory over the previously undefeated Swedish side. Canada outshot Sweden in all three periods and had a 44-23 edge in the game. Connor Bedard continued to make history as his four-assist effort brought him to 31 career World Junior points, tied with Eric Lindros for the Canadian record. Bedard’s 18 points this tournament (6G, 12A) is also tied for the Canadian single-tournament record.

Canada’s offence has absolutely dominated over the last three games, outscoring Germany, Austria and Sweden 27-3. As a team, Canada leads the tournament in goals (29), shooting percentage (16.02 per cent) and power play efficiency (57.14 per cent, 12-for-22). Logan Stankoven is also having a solid tournament as the second-leading scorer, but to put into perspective how dominant Bedard has been, consider Stankoven’s eight points (2G, 6A) is still 10 behind tournament-leader Bedard.

Canada has rotated between goalies Thomas Milic, who played against Sweden, and Ben Gaudreau, but Milic might have done enough in the preliminary round the solidify the No. 1 spot in the knockout phase. Milic has a .939 save percentage and 1.22 goals-against average in three starts and four games (Gaudreau was pulled in the loss against Czechia). Gaudreau has an .828 SV and his GAA ballooned to .857 because of the five goals he allowed against Czechia.

Originally cut from the team in December, forward Owen Beck (17G, 23A in 30 OHL games this season) will replace the injured Colton Dach (2A in four tournament games), who is out of the tournament after suffering a right shoulder injury against Sweden.

Team Slovakia

Slovakia finished third in Group B following a tough 4-3 shootout loss against Switzerland on Saturday. Slovakia led 3-1 heading into the third period but eventually dropped the game in the 10th round of the shootout. Servac Petrovsky scored twice for Slovakia in regulation, while Adam Sykora scored once. Filip Mesar and Libor Nemec each had two assists and Adam Gajan made 32 saves in regulation and overtime and another seven in the shootout.

Slovakia has scored 14 goals and allowed 12 through four preliminary round games. They fell 6-1 to Canada earlier in December in a pre-tournament game. Mesar (3G, 3A), a 2022 Montreal Canadiens first-round draft pick, and Peter Repcik (4G, 2A) lead Slovakia with six points apiece.

Gajan should be the starting netminder against Canada after producing two wins with a .939 SV and 2.27 GAA in thee tournament games.