2023 World Junior Hockey Championship: Canada vs. Sweden Odds, Prediction
Fresh off two blowout victories at the 2023 World Junior Hockey Championship, Canada will face its toughest opponent when they take on the undefeated Swedes on Saturday night. With two regulation wins and one overtime victory, Sweden can clinch Group A by defeating Canada. Canada still has a slim chance to clinch the group, but they would need to beat Sweden and Czechia would need to suffer an upset loss against Germany.
Canada is a slim favourite to win on the IIHF odds, while the total sits at 6.0.
2023 World Junior Championship Betting Odds
There is surprisingly little recent history between these perennial hockey powerhouses. This is just the fourth World Juniors meeting between Canada and Sweden over the last decade and only the second time they’ve been in the same group over that span. Sweden downed Canada in the preliminary round in 2016, while Canada won in the semi-final in 2017 and the gold medal game in 2018.
Canada remains a +185 favourite to win the tournament, while Sweden has the third-shortest odds at +417. The teams flip position when it comes to winning Group A, with Sweden at +186 and Canada at +426. Czechia is the favourite to win Group A at -118. In the history of the tournament, Canada has won the most gold medals (19) and most total medals (34). Sweden has won 20 World Junior medals, but they only have two golds, with their last tournament win coming in 2012.
Team Canada
It’s clear the Canadian offence is clicking after a humbling tournament-opening loss. Canada has outscored opponents 22-2 over the last two games, capped by Thursday’s 11-0 rout of Austria. There were 10 different goal scorers for Canada on Thursday, led by Connor Bedard who had a six-point effort (2G, 4A) to follow up a seven-point (3G, 4A) night the game before. Bedard’s 14 career World Junior goals matches Jordan Eberle for the Canadian record, while his 27 points is four back of Eric Lindros’ all-time mark. Through three games, Bedard leads the tournament in points (14), goals (6) and assists (8).
Despite Ben Gaudreau pitching a 12-save shutout on Thursday, it will likely be Thomas Milic in net against Sweden as the Canadian plan has been to rotate the goalies evenly. Milic stopped all 10 shots he faced in relief in the tournament opener when Gaudreau was pulled in a loss to Czechia and he made 14 saves on 16 shots in the second game, a win against Germany.
Canada leads the tournament in goals (24), shooting percentage (17.4 per cent) and power play efficiency (68.75 per cent, 11-for-16).
Team Sweden
Sweden’s 3-2 overtime win against Czechia on Thursday puts them in a good spot to clinch Group A, but they’ll still need to beat Canada to guarantee they take top spot. Ludvig Jansson’s second goal of the game was the overtime winner on Thursday. Fabian Wagner also scored, while Carl Lindbom made 33 saves in net. It was Sweden’s 14th straight victory over Czechia at the World Juniors. Jansson leads Sweden with five points (2G, 3A).
Lindbom is the player to watch out for on this Swedish squad. A seventh-round draft pick by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2021, Lindbom recorded shutouts in the first two games of the tournament. Among goalies who have played more than one game, Lindbom leads the tournament in save percentage (.974) and goals-against average (0.66).
This is a very defensively-sound Swedish team. They’re a perfect 10-for-10 on the penalty kill and they rank first in every major team goaltending statistic.
Canada vs. Sweden WJC Score Prediction
Canada 3, Sweden 2