Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers
Last Updated: November 25, 2017

The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have many nits to pick at this point in the season – but more consistent goal scoring would certainly please head coach Mike Babcock as the Leafs host the Washington Capitals on Saturday night. Toronto has scored just one goal in three of its past five games – and has a whopping 11 combined tallies in the other two. The Capitals hit the road following a successful 3-1 homestand that ended with a 3-1 triumph over Tampa Bay.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs

NHL odds: Maple Leafs -125
Date: Saturday, November 25, 7 p.m. ET
Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ont.

NHL Odds and Betting Analysis

It’s the third game in a four-night span for the Capitals, and if recent history repeats, they could be in big trouble Saturday. Washington has just one win in its last eight games in this scenario, and will be in tough against a Toronto team that has won five of its previous six contests against Eastern Conference opponents. But Washington has dominated the head-to-head matchup, winning 11 of the past 15 – including five of the previous seven encounters in Toronto.

Two teams with high-scoring offences don’t usually see a total of 5.5 – particularly with goal scoring up this season – but both teams have been trending positively toward the under. Washington has gone below the total in eight of its last nine games following a victory, and are 1-5 O/U the last six times playing the second game of a back-to-back. Toronto has five unders and two pushes in its previous eight games overall.

Washington Capitals

Having lost their last five games in the finale of a back-to-back, the Capitals will need to summon the energy to deal with a rested Toronto team – and it starts with being better on the penalty kill. Washington comes in at just 77.1 percent – ranking 24th out of 31 teams – and has allowed at least one power-play goal in five of its previous six games. The Capitals have lost their last three road games, surrendering 15 goals in the process.

Toronto Maple Leafs

There are plenty of contributing factors in the Maple Leafs’ 8-3-1 showing so far this month – and goaltending is at or near the top of the list. But with Toronto having allowed four goals in two of its past three games, fans and bettors alike are wondering if the Leafs’ recent rash of unders is about to come to an end. Toronto and Washington have played over the total in six of their last eight meetings, but their last meeting – a 2-0 Leafs win – was an emphatic under.