Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues: NHL Odds, Prediction

After getting off to a blistering start, the Toronto Maple Leafs have recently shown they still have work to do to be considered among the league’s elite. Toronto will look to end an ugly stretch of play as they wrap up a four-game road trip against the Blues in St. Louis. The Maple Leafs lost for the fifth time in seven games Thursday night in Los Angeles, and won’t find much relief against a Blues team that has won 10 of 14 games to open the season.

Maple Leafs vs. Blues

Moneyline: Blues -140

Date: Saturday, November 4, 7 p.m. ET

Scottrade Center, St. Louis, Mo.

NHL Odds and Betting Analysis

St. Louis opened at -127 but has seen that number jump slightly, likely due to the Leafs’ recent poor form. Toronto has picked up just two of a possible six points on the road after dropping the final two games of its three-game homestand. The marquee matchup in this one pits Toronto’s 3.8 goals-per-game average – second-best in the NHL – taking on a Blues defence surrendering just 2.3 goals per contest, second-fewest in the league.

The home side has the betting public on its side – at least on Sports Interaction, where 64 percent are taking the Blues. The total of six has drawn equal bets on both sides; Toronto has gone over nine times in 14 games this season, while St. Louis is 7-7-0 O/U on the year. But the Maple Leafs have played below the total in 18 of their last 26 games vs. Eastern Conference foes, while the Blues have gone under in 20 of their last 29 contests on one day of rest.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs’ season to date can be summed up this simply: When Auston Matthews is one the ice, great things happen – and when he isn’t, it’s bad news for Toronto. Not only does Matthews lead the team in goals (10) and points (18), his plus-14 rating is tops in the NHL. But in a mild surprise, the Maple Leafs are just 4-5-0 straight-up in games in which Matthews scores – including losses in each of the last four games featuring a Matthews goal.

St. Louis Blues

As impressive as the Blues have been this season, they have room to get even better – and it starts with their special teams. St. Louis comes into the weekend ranked 22nd on the power play (15.6 percent) and 25th on the penalty kill (77.6 percent). The Blues have just two man-advantage goals over their last nine games – and both came in the same night against Calgary. But it hasn’t slowed St. Louis, which is 6-2-1 SU in that stretch.

Maple Leafs vs. Blues Prediction

Blues 5, Maple Leafs 3