Today’s Sports Betting Picks – Thursday, May 25, 2023

Golden Knights at Stars: Wish upon a star

If there was any hope Dallas could climb back into this series, it evaporated by the midway point of the first period in Game 3. Less than 10 minutes into the game, the Stars trailed 3-0 and lost captain Jamie Benn to a game-misconduct.

Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger was yanked after allowing three goals on five shots and the Stars went on to lose the game 4-0. Things won’t get any easier with Benn receiving a two-game suspension. Dallas now trails the Golden Knights 3-0 in the best-of-seven Western Conference Final.

Dallas desperately needs Oettinger to find his game if they want to extend this series. Oetteinger has lost his last three starts and four of his last five overall. He’s given up at least three goals in every game this series, with Game 3 being the shortest outing of his career after being pulled a little over seven minutes into the contest.

The Stars’ loss is Vegas’ gain. The Golden Knights opened as narrow +100 underdogs for Game 4, but nearly 74 per cent of bettors are backing Vegas, pushing the line to essentially a pick’em.

The Over/Under, which sits at 5.5 for Game 4, is split evenly among bettors. That’s a bit surprising given Dallas and Vegas have combined for more than five goals in just one of their last seven head-to-heads.

It’s worth keeping in mind, games are generally close between these teams. Game 3 broke a streak of four consecutive meetings needing overtime or a shootout.

NHL best bet: Game total Under 5.5 goals (-112)

Heat at Celtics: Heatwave in Beantown

The Celtics managed to keep their season alive with a 116-99 Game 4 victory, but they still return to Boston trailing the Miami Heat 3-1 in the Eastern Conference Final. Could that Game 4 victory give the Celtics a flicker of life? History isn’t exactly on their side as no NBA team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven playoff series. For the recored, 151 teams have trailed 0-3 and none of them managed a comeback to win the series.

Jayson Tatum is the key to Boston living to fight another day. Tatum led the way with 33 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in Game 4 as the Celtics used an 18-0 run in the third quarter to pull away. Boston outscored the Heat by 30 points from beyond the arc and they scored 27 points off of Miami’s 16 turnovers.

Ironically, the Celtics won three times on Miami’s home court last year in the East finals and with a win on Thursday, the Heat would accomplish the same feat on Boston’s home court. And the Celtics haven’t been stellar at home this postseason, going 4-5 at TD Garden.

Miami opened as 7.5-point underdogs for Game 5 and that number has crept to +8 despite 87 per cent of sports bettors backing the Heat. Bettors clearly see a trend as Miami is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six against Boston.

NBA best bet: Miami covers as +8.0 underdogs (-110)

Orioles at Yankees: Comeback kids

The Yankees and Orioles have split the first two games of a three-game set in the Bronx. Thursday’s series finale opened as a pick’em, but has shifted to make the Yankees -138 favourites to win.

Baltimore’s eight-run seventh inning on Wednesday helped the Orioles earn their 19th come-from-behind win of the year. They sent 12 batters to the plate in their highest scoring inning since September 2021.

New York and Baltimore boast the top two bullpens in the majors. The Yankees’ bullpens ranks first with a 2.94 ERA, while Orioles relievers have a 2.98 ERA.

Clarke Schmidt (2-4, 6.00 ERA) will take the mound for New York on Thursday. Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA) gets the ball for Baltimore.

MLB best bet: Yankees moneyline win (-138)