NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Odds: Four questions facing the Leafs, Jets, Oilers and Canucks
With roughly 10 regular season games left on the 2023-24 NHL schedule, it’s time to start looking ahead to the playoffs. Four Canadian teams are set to make the playoffs this year, with Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver all capable of going on long runs. But, there’s also the threat that these teams could face early exits.
Let’s look at one major question facing each Canadian team as they gear up for the postseason.
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Toronto Maple Leafs
Who is Toronto’s Game 1 starter in net?
| Player | Games Played | Games Started | Record (W-L-OTL) | GAA | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov | 34 | 34 | 19-6-7 | 3.12 | .889 |
| Martin Jones | 21 | 18 | 11-7-1 | 2.70 | .908 |
| Joseph Woll | 21 | 19 | 10-9-1 | 2.96 | .908 |
As Auston Matthews continues his hunt for 70 goals, the biggest question mark for Toronto heading into the playoffs is, who will be between the pipes to start Game 1? The Leafs have a pretty unique goaltending situation as they have three netminders who have played at least 21 games this season and there’s a fourth NHL-caliber goalie returning to the ice in Matt Murray.
While Murray is a long shot to see any game action this year, there’s scenarios that could see Joseph Woll, Ilya Samsonov, or Martin Jones start in net for Toronto. The battle right now is between Woll and Samsonov, but injuries or inconsistent play could give Jones a realistic shot to see ice time in the playoffs.
The case for Samsonov is his experience and the fact he was brought to Toronto to be the starter. Samsonov has played 120 regular season games and 14 playoff games over the last three seasons, while Woll didn’t even crack the NHL full-time until this season. It’s the inconsistency and injury issues that makes you question whether Samsonov gives you the best chance to win.
And speaking of injury issues, let’s look at Woll. The 25-year-old secured the starter’s role after outplaying Samsonov early in the season, but an ankle injury that sidelined him for almost three months has evened the table again. Woll hasn’t been as consistent as he was prior to the injury, but he still has a better goals-against average and save percentage than Samsonov.
Don’t forget about Jones, who essentially saved Toronto’s season when both Woll and Samsonov were injured. Jones has the best goals-against average of the three goalies and an equal save percentage to Woll. Jones is also the most experienced of the three, with over 400 career regular season starts and 60 playoff starts.
Winnipeg Jets
Where is the depth scoring?
Winnipeg can clearly put the puck in the net, with the trio of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers combining to score 52 even-strength goals this season, but that won’t be enough come playoff time.
Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli were great pickups ahead of the trade deadline, but the Jets still have the third-lowest goals-per-game average (3.07) of any team currently in a playoff spot. Only Philadelphia (2.92) and Washington (2.73) score less than Winnipeg among the current playoff teams.
The Jets have the 22nd ranked power play (18.4 per cent) in the NHL this season, but there’s reason for optimism as they are clicking at around 30 per cent on the power play since Monahan arrived from Montreal. Monahan and Toffoli have also shown chemsitry with Ehlers, which gives Winnipeg a legit second line threat.
Another hope for the Jets is the return of Gabe Vilardi to the lineup. Vilardi, who has been sidelined with an upper-body injury since Feb. 29, returned to practice wearing a regular jersey on Tuesday. Vilardi is also dealing with an enlarged spleen, so it’s hard to know exactly when he will return, but he’s been effective when available, putting up 16 goals in 38 games this season.
Edmonton Oilers
Will Edmonton’s defence hold up?
With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, it’s no surprise that Edmonton averages the fourth-most goals per game (3.57) this season while boasting the second-best power play (27.5 per cent). But how will this team hold up defensively in the playoffs?
There’s two big reasons to be concerned about the Oilers defensively: Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci. Nurse averages the second-most time on ice per game on the roster, but his goal differential is just plus-one, while Ceci isn’t much better at plus-five. Those are terrible stats for two of your top-four defencemen when you compare it to Mattias Ekholm at plus-34 and Evan Bouchard at plus-26.
Another reason for concern is the uncertainty between the pipes. Stuart Skinner (32-14-4, 2.66 GAA, .905 SV) has very little experience and fell apart in the playoffs last year, while Edmonton’s only other options are career-backup Calvin Pickard or Jack Campbell, who also fell apart in the playoffs last year and has been relegated to the minors for most of the season.
As great as McDavid, Draisaitl and even Zach Hyman have been this season, the Oilers won’t have success in the playoffs if they rely on scoring their way out of trouble. They need better defensive play and solid goaltending to get past the likes of Colorado, Vegas, Vancouver and Winnipeg in the West.
Vancouver Canucks
How healthy is Thatcher Demko?
No time of the season is ideal for an injury, but losing starting goaltender Thatcher Demko (34-13-2, 2.47 GAA, .917 SV) less than a month before the playoffs start is a disaster for Vancouver. Demko remains a top Vezina Trophy candidate despite not playing since March 9 and he is currently listed as “week-to-week” with a knee injury.
Casey DeSmith (11-6-6, 2.73 GAA, .899 SV) has been a dependable backup and he’s keeping the Canucks afloat in Demko’s absence, but the team just looks different with DeSmith as the go-to guy. DeSmith is a career-backup and he only has one game of playoff experience under his belt.
You can rely on players like J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson to provide offence and Quinn Hughes will likely win the Norris Trophy this season, but it will be a gauntlet to get through the playoffs in the Western Conference. The good news for Vancouver is that outside of Winnipeg, pretty much every Western Conference team has goaltending issues. If Demko can return anywhere close to 100 per cent healthy, the Canucks will have a distinct edge in net.