NHL Odds: Here’s why the Toronto Maple Leafs are the worst bet in the NHL
The Toronto Maple Leafs remain a top contender for the Stanley Cup heading into the 2023-24 season, but after seven seasons with a core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly (and five with John Tavares), this team has managed to win just one round in the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs are a great regular season team, but inflated betting odds, a terrible puckline record and an inability to win in the playoffs make them a bad option for bettors. Here’s why you shouldn’t bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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Inflated Odds
The most important thing to understand when you’re talking about betting on the Toronto Maple Leafs is the inflated odds that come with those bets.
Regardless of how good or bad the team is on the ice, the Leafs will always be one of the most popular teams in the NHL. That means casual fans are more likely to bet on Toronto over a team in a non-traditional market like Columbus or Nashville. With that added betting action, the odds are lowered and the value on a Toronto bet is lessened.
Puckline Record
The Maple Leafs have been a regular season juggernaut for the last few years, but it’s a deceptive dominance when it comes to betting because they were usually listed as the favourite to win, making it harder for them to cover the spread.
*COVID shortened season
| Season | W-L-OTL | Record Against the Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 46-28-8 | 36-46 |
| 2019-20* | 36-25-9 | 30-45 |
| 2020-2021* | 35-14-7 | 22-34 |
| 2021-22 | 54-21-7 | 39-43 |
| 2022-23 | 50-21-11 | 37-45 |
The chart above compares Toronto’s regular season win, loss and OT loss totals versus their record against the spread over the last five years. The Leafs are 221-109-42 in regular season action in that span, but they are just 164-213 against the spread (or on the puckline).
So, if you bet Toronto on the puckline at all in the regular season over the last five years, it was actually more likely you would lose the bet despite the Leafs sitting high in the NHL standings.
If you’re betting on the puckline this season, you will be better off betting AGAINST the Leafs rather than for the Leafs.
Futures Fiasco
**Won division
2018-19: Lost 4-3 in first round of playoffs (Bruins)
2019-20: Lost 3-2 in qualifying round of playoff bubble (Blue Jackets)
2020-21: Lost 4-3 in first round of playoffs (Canadiens)**
2021-22: Lost 4-3 in first round of playoffs (Lightning)
2022-23: Lost 4-1 in second round of playoffs (Panthers)
The Leafs may have performed well in the regular season over the last few years, but even that success is deceptive. Toronto has been one of the top betting favourites to win the Atlantic Division for about five years, but they’ve managed to do it only once in that span.
Keep in mind, the Leafs notoriously rest star players after they clinch a playoff spot. That strategy has cost Marner a 100-point season in each of the last two years and it has also cost Toronto key points in the standings. The strategy for this team has always been about being healthy in the playoffs, not winning the division.
And speaking of that playoff strategy…
Let’s be blunt. The Leafs are playoff choke artists and there is absolutely no reason to expect that to change. The core of the team has been the same for years and the best players have been in their prime for a while, so why would anyone expect different results this season? You can’t expect any more out of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly, while Tavares’ impact is likely headed for a sharp decline. It’s time to accept Toronto won’t win in the playoffs.
Bet on the Leafs at your own risk because this team will burn you.
