NHL Odds: Can Auston Matthews score 50 goals in 50 games?

Jordan Ramsay
Last Updated: October 18, 2023

At just 26-years-old, Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews has established himself as arguably the best goal scorer in the NHL today and he will likely go down as one of the best American players of all-time. Matthews is off to the hottest start of his career, which has fans and analysts asking the same question:

Can Auston Matthews score 50 goals in 50 games?

Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of specials and prop odds as well as NHL game odds and futures bets.

Auston Matthews

Matthews is on a historic pace to start the season, scoring a hat trick in each of Toronto’s first two games. He is the first NHL player to open a season with back-to-back hat tricks since Alex Ovechkin in 2017-18 and just the fifth player to do it in NHL history. To put the rarity of the feat in perspective, the other three players to record back-to-back hat tricks to open a season (Cy Denneny, Joe Malone and Reg Noble) all did it over a century ago in the 1917-18 season.

Now, obviously Matthews’ pace isn’t sustainable, no one expects him to score 246 goals this season. But, a hot start can do a lot to kickstart his season into high gear. Matthews will need 44 goals over Toronto’s next 47 games to hit 50-in-50, which seems doable considering he is fully healthy and he’ll continue to have elite playmaker Mitch Marner feeding him the puck.

Hot start aside, let’s look at Matthews’ last couple of seasons. He’s only one year removed from scoring 60 goals in 73 games and his down-year last season (if you can call 40 goals a down-year) was more the result of a lingering hand/wrist injury.

Through the first three games this season, Matthews’ shooting percentage is 28.6 per cent, which is 11 per cent higher than his 60-goal season. That number will obviously drop, but even if his shooting percentage dips 11 per cent, that would be a 64-goal pace and put him at 50 goals right around the 50-game mark.

And don’t overlook the impact of Matthews killing penalties for the first time in his NHL career. That move gives Matthews more ice time and he should be able to pot a few empty net goals as teams are less structured defensively when on the power play and they often go with four forwards and just one defenceman.

So, will Matthews score 50 goals in 50 games this season? It’s a feat that is legitimately in sight for him as he will continue to score at a high rate and be a top contender for the Rocket Richard and Hart trophies.

50-in-50

Scoring 50 goals over an 82-game season is difficult enough, but finding the back of the net 50 times in 50 games is one of the rarest feats in the NHL. Only five players in eight different seasons have achieved the mark and no one has done it since Brett Hull in 1990-91. The accomplishment is so rare, Hull (twice) and Wayne Gretzky (three times) are the only players to score 50 goals in 50 games multiple times.

Maurice Richard was the first player to score 50 goals in 50 games, doing so with the Montreal Canadiens in the 1944-45 season. In addition to Richard, Gretzky and Hull, New York Islanders great Mike Bossy scored 50-in-50 in the 1980-81 season and Mario Lemieux did it in 1988-89.

To be clear, it’s only considered an official 50-in-50 season if the player scores 50 goals in the team’s first 50 games, not the player’s first 50. Any games a player misses because of injury, suspension, etc. still count toward the 50-game mark. An example would be Jarri Kurri, who scored his 50th goal of the 1984-85 season in his 50th game, but it was Edmonton’s 53rd game of the season, so it did not count as an official 50-in-50 season.