NHL Awards Odds and Predictions: MacKinnon, McDavid, Kucherov lead the pack for Art Ross Trophy and Hart Trophy
It looks like it’s a three-horse race for both the Art Ross Trophy and the Hart Trophy as Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov are each projecting to finish the regular season with roughly 140 points.
Winning the Art Ross doesn’t guarantee you the Hart, but it’s worth noting that in seven of the last 10 seasons, both awards have been won by the same player.
Let’s take a closer look at MacKinnon, MacDavid and Kucherov’s respective seasons as they each vie for the Art Ross Trophy and the Hart Trophy.
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*Stats as of April 3
Nathan MacKinnon
Goals: 47
Assists: 80
Points: 127
Games Remaining: 7
MacKinnon has been relentless this season, breaking Joe Sakic’s Colorado Avalanche record of 120 points in a single season. The 28-year-old also put up the second-longest home points streak in NHL history at 35 games and he is the first player ever to have multiple point streaks of at least 19 games in a single season. He projects to finish the year with 139 points, which would tie Peter Statsny’s all-time Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche franchise record.
MacKinnon has less games remaining than Kucherov and McDavid and with five of those games coming against teams currently in a playoff position, it will be tough for him to capture the Art Ross Trophy. The Hart is well within his grasp, however. The Hart Trophy is separated by a razor-thin margin this year, so could the fact MacKinnon has never won before tip the scales just enough in his favour?
Nikita Kucherov
Goals: 42
Assists: 85
Points: 127
Games Remaining: 8
The 30-year Kucherov is set to smash his previous career-high of 128 points from the 2018-19 season when he won not only the Hart Trophy and Art Ross Trophy, but also the Ted Lindsay Award. He has held the NHL lead in points for most of the season and currently sits tied with MacKinnon at 127 points. His current pace projects him to finish around the 141-point mark, one point less than McDavid projects to finish with.
The argument for Kucherov comes down to how crucial he has been to keeping Tampa Bay in the playoff hunt all season. He has a ridiculous 45 points more than the next closest player on the roster, Brayden Point, and he kept the team afloat while starting goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy missed the first two months of the season. Kucherov’s direct importance to the Lightning’s success is the definition of the Hart Trophy.
Connor McDavid
Goals: 29
Assists: 97
Points: 126
Games Remaining: 9
McDavid is only 27-years-old and he has already won five Art Ross trophies, including each of the last three. He’s also won the Hart in 2017, 2021 and 2023. Let’s just say I didn’t reach the same level of success by 27. The Oilers’ captain currently sits one point behind MacKinnon and Kucherov and he has games on-hand over both players. Based on his points per game percentage, McDavid will finish the season with roughly 142 points.
McDavid’s case for the Hart is going to come down to voter fatigue versus historical stats. He’s the three-time reigning Hart winner, which almost hurts his case this year because he has to top what he’s already done to impress voters. McDavid won’t reach the 150-point plateau again this season, but barring a major setback, he will become the just the fourth player in NHL history to record a 100-assist season. Who are the other three? Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr and Mario Lemeuix. That’s exclusive company and it could warrant a Hart Trophy.
Hart and Art Ross Predictions
Art Ross Trophy
- Connor McDavid (142 points)
- Nikita Kucherov (141 points)
- Nathan MacKinnon (139 points)
The Art Ross Trophy is purely about statistics and that’s how I’m scoring it. Looking at each player’s current point total, the games remaining on their schedule and their points per game average this season, McDavid should slightly edge out Kucherov and MacKinnon for the Art Ross.
Hart Trophy
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Nikita Kucherov
- Connor McDavid
Yes, I have McDavid winning the Art Ross, but I have him finishing third for the Hart Trophy. I don’t agree with it, but I think voter fatigue will be a factor. I also believe MacKinnon and Kucherov have had a more direct impact on their teams’ success than McDavid this season. MacKinnon’s ridiculous home points streak gives him the edge.
