New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Series Prediction, NHL Odds
For the second time in the past three years, the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins will meet in the first round of the playoffs. In his first season behind the bench in New York in 2019, Barry Trotz made a statement to the rest of the league that they were a team to be feared by sweeping the Pens. Finishing atop the East Division, Pittsburgh is looking for one more kick at the can as their modern day dynasty gets closer to ending. Can the Islanders come out on top against the Penguins again, or does Pittsburgh have one last playoff-run left in them?
The Penguins opened as -181 favourites to win the series on the NHL Futures Board.
Islanders vs. Penguins Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh has the commanding edge in the season series between these teams. The Pens have won six of eight regular season games against New York, but it’s worth noting two of those wins needed extra time. No game was decided by more than three goals and the only shutout was a 2-0 Islanders win on Feb. 28. This is the first meeting between these teams since a 2-1 Pittsburgh win on March 29. The Over/Under is equally split in the season series.
Without home ice advantage, New York is going to need to be better on the road to win this series. The Isles were a subpar 11-13-1 outside of Nassau Coliseum and they’ve dropped eight of their last 10 road games this season. They went 29-27 against the spread and covered in five of their last 10 games overall. The total went Under in 20 of New York’s 28 road games this year.
Pittsburgh was great at home this year, going 22-4-2 at PPG Paints Arena and winning six of their last seven home games. The Pens were 26-30 ATS and they covered in half of their 28 home games. Heading into Sunday, the Over has hit in four of Pittsburgh’s last six games.
New York Islanders
New York will be icing a much different looking roster than they had for the first six games of their season series with Pittsburgh. They lost captain Anders Lee to a season-ending knee injury on March 11, but since then, they’ve picked up Kyle Palmieri and Traviz Zajac by trade. Palmieri is a nice depth addition. The former New Jersey Devil had two goals and two assists in the 17 games after the trade.
Mathew Barzal needs to be a game-breaker for the Islanders. Barzal is New York’s most dangerous weapon and led the team with 45 points (17G, 28A) during the regular season. Six of his points (3G, 3A) came against Pittsburgh. He has 24 points (7G, 17A) in 30 NHL playoff games, but he was most dangerous in last year’s playoff bubble. Barzal had 17 points (5G, 12A) and led the Isles to the Eastern Conference Final for the first time since 1993.
The Islanders will also be backstopped by potential Vezina-candidate, Semyon Varlamov. He went 19-11-4 this year with a 2.04 goals-against average and .929 save percentage. Varlamov led the league with seven shutouts, highlighted by a stretch of 248:00 without allowing a goal. Rookie Ilya Sorokin will serve as Varlamov’s backup. Sorokin went 13-6-3 this year with a 2.17 GAA and .918 SV. He had three shutouts and allowed two goals or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
Pittsburgh Penguins
With players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, the Penguins aren’t exactly lacking in veteran leadership, but the addition of two-time Stanley Cup winner, Jeff Carter, was still a nice trade pickup. Carter has fit nicely into his role as the third-line centre, picking up nine goals in 14 games with Pittsburgh. Malkin’s health is the big question mark surrounding this team. He missed 23 games this year because of a lower-body injury, but his 28 points (8G, 20A) in 33 games shows how valuable he is to the Pens.
You obviously can’t talk about this team without talking about Crosby. The Pens captain had another strong year, finishing 10th in league scoring with 62 points (24G, 38A). Nine of those points (3G, 6A) came against the Islanders. Crosby’s 122 career points (39G, 83A) against the Isles is the most he has against any NHL team.
Keep an eye on the health of Tristan Jarry. He’s set to start on Sunday, but he missed the final game of the regular season on May 8 because of an upper-body injury. Jarry was 25-9-3 this year with a 2.75 GAA and .909 SV. He won five of his six starts against the Islanders. Casey DeSmith will backup Jarry. DeSmith missed the final three games of the regular season with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to be healthy for the start of the series. He was 14-2-2 this year with a .918 SV and he won eight of his final 12 starts.
NHL Series Prediction: Who Will Win Islanders vs. Penguins?
This is going to be a grind-it-out type of series. Trotz and the Islanders love to slow the game down, but expect the Penguins to learn from their loss in 2019. We’re taking Pittsburgh in seven games for this one.