Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Series Prediction, Playoff Odds

It looked like it was destined to happen all season and we now get to see what is arguably the most anticipated playoff series this year with the Montreal Canadiens facing the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.  This is the 15th time these teams have met in the playoffs, but it’s been over 40 years since the last meeting and scores of Habs and Leafs fans have never seen a playoff series between their teams in their lifetime.  Will Toronto finally win their first playoff series since 2004, or can the Habs prove it’s not just Boston that crushes Leafs’ fans dreams?

The Leafs come into this series as the top team in the North Division and -435 favourites to win the series on the NHL futures board.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Odds

These teams have very little scouting left to be done after facing off 10 times in the regular season.  Toronto got the better of Montreal with seven wins, but it was a closer series than it appears as only two games were decided by more than two goals.  The total went Under in six of the 10 games.

Habs fans are likely fairly nervous as the Canadiens ended the season on a five-game losing streak and lost five of their last six road games.  Montreal won two of five games in Toronto this season.  They were 24-32 against the spread and managed to cover in half of their road games.  The Canadiens hit the Over in 13 of 24 road games this year.

Toronto has to be feeling nothing but confident heading into this series.  They won seven of their last 10 regular season games, including four of their last five at home.  The Leafs struggled to cover, going 10-18 ATS at home.  The total went Under in exactly half of Toronto’s home games this season.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal is coming into this series rested and healthy.  They had eight days off between the regular season and the start of the playoffs and they’ll have Shea Weber, Carey Price, Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault back in the lineup for Game 1.  Weber (upper-body) missed the final eight games of the regular season, while Gallagher (broken thumb) has been out since April 5.  Price hasn’t played since April 19 and Danault has been out since May 6, as both players were dealing with concussions.

Price is expected to get the start for Game 1, despite only playing four periods of NHL hockey since April 1.  He played two periods with the AHL’s Laval Rocket on Monday, allowing two goals on 15 shots.  It was an up-and-down season for Price this year.  He went 12-7-5 with a 2.68 goals-against average, a .901 save percentage and one shutout.  It’s fair to wonder how much of a leash he’ll be given, as backup Jake Allen had a more consistent season.  Allen was 11-12-5 with a 2.68 GAA and .907 SV.  Price was 1-2-1 against the Leafs this year with a 3.48 GAA and .868 SV.  Against Toronto, Allen was 2-3-0 with a 2.66 GAA and .907 SV.

Look for Tyler Toffoli to be a big factor for this team.  He led the team in total goals (28), power play goals (seven) and shots (158).  Toffoli was tied with Josh Anderson for most game-winning goals this year, with five apiece.  He had seven points (3G, 4A) against Toronto this season.  Jeff Petry also caused problems for the Leafs, scoring 10 points (all assists) against Toronto.  The defenceman was second on the team in points with 42 (12G, 30A).

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are also coming into this series rested with a six-day break.  Auston Matthews will obviously be a focus against the Habs.  The Toronto sniper was second on the Leafs with 66 points (41G, 25A) and led the NHL in goals.  He had 14 points (7G, 7A) against Montreal.  Mitch Marner led the team in points with 67 (20G, 47A) and was fourth in NHL points.  The third part of that top line for Game 1 is expected to be Zach Hyman.  He’s been out since April 18 with an MCL sprain, but has been practicing with Matthews and Marner leading up to Game 1.  Before the injury, Hyman was having a career year with 33 points (15G, 18A), but his true value lies in dominating the gritty areas of the ice to create space and time for Matthews and Marner.

The goalie situation is the most interesting part for the Leafs in this series.  True No. 1 Frederik Andersen has struggled and only played one game since March 19 because of a knee injury.  Jack Campbell will get the start for Game 1.  Campbell had a breakout year, going 17-3-2 with a 2.15 GAA, .921 SV and two shutouts.  Andersen will back him up.  In 24 games, Andersen was 13-8-3.  He had a 2.96 GAA and .895 SV.

Rasmus Sandin could be a nice, sneaky option in this series for player props.  He only played nine games for the Leafs this year because he suffered a fractured foot in an AHL game with the Marlies.  He’ll start the series on the second power play unit and because Zach Bogosian is out with a lower-body injury, Hyman should get some big minutes.  Hyman had four assists this year, but with a much bigger role to start this series, his offensive numbers could take a big jump.

NHL Playoff Series Prediction: Who Will Win Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?

Dealing with injuries all year, Montreal did well just to make it to the playoffs.  But, nothing ever seems to line up for the Habs, as either Price plays great and the team doesn’t, or the team plays great and Price doesn’t.  This is Toronto’s year to end their first round curse.  The Leafs will sweep the series in four games.