Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights Series Prediction, NHL Odds

Losing out on the President’s Trophy by a tiebreaker, the Vegas Golden Knights are likely more focused on the only trophy that matters, the Stanley Cup.  Standing in their way is a deceptively good Minnesota Wild team, led by star rookie, Kirill Kaprizov.  Vegas has made the playoffs in all four years of their existence, while this will be Minnesota’s eighth appearance over the last nine seasons.  Both teams are still looking for their first Stanley Cup victory in franchise history as they meet each other in the playoffs for the first time ever.  Are the Golden Knights destined for another deep playoff run, or can the Wild shock the shiny golden buckets off the Vegas players’ heads?

The Golden Knights opened as -268 favourites to win the series on the NHL Futures Board.

Wild vs. Golden Knights Betting Analysis

These teams have seen a lot of each other lately, as all eight of their regular season meetings have come since March 1.  A Vegas 5-1 win was the biggest margin of victory in this season series, but Minnesota actually has a 5-3 edge in total wins.  Two of the Golden Knights’ wins came in OT, while one of the Wild’s came by shootout.  The Over/Under is split in the series and the last five games have been decided by a single goal.

Minnesota has had Vegas’ number this year, going 5-1 straight up in their last six games against the Golden Knights.  The Wild had a positive 29-27 record against the spread, but they failed to cover in seven of their last 10 regular season games.  The goals seem to come pouring in for Minnesota on the road, as they’ve hit the Over in 14 of their last 20 games outside of Xcel Energy Center.

The Golden Knights have been a scary team overall this year, but they’ve been even tougher at home.  Vegas was 21-5-2 at T-Mobile Arena and they won seven of their last eight home games.  The total has gone Under in four of the last six games between these teams.

Minnesota Wild

Kaprizov makes this Minnesota team dangerous.  Not only did he lead all NHL rookies in points (51) and goals (27) this season, he scored at key times.  Kaprizov had three game-winning goals and two OT markers.  He finished with eight points (6G, 2A) against Vegas this season.  Marcus Foligno has also been a big factor in the Wild’s positive record against Vegas.  Foligno has been physically intimidating in the season series and finished with seven points (3G, 4A) in six games against the Golden Knights.

Cam Talbot will likely get the start in Game 1, but it’s fair to wonder just how short his leash will be.  Talbot went 19-8-5 this year with a 2.63 goals-against average and .915 save percentage, but he struggled down the stretch, allowing 24 goals over his last six starts.  Rookie Kaapo Kahkonen has been equally inconsistent.  Kahkonen was 16-8-0 in the regular season with a 2.88 GAA and .902 SV.  Over his last eight games, Kahkonen had a 4.51 GAA and .858 SV, but he did win both his starts against Vegas this year (Talbot was 3-1-2).

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas is going to need Mark Stone to continue to lead this team through the playoffs.  The Golden Knights captain led the team with 61 points (21G, 40A) in the regular season and had eight game-winning goals.  He also had a team-high 10 points (2G, 8A) against Minnesota.  Alex Tuch is another player Vegas will need to step up.  Tuch will likely be playing with a chip on his shoulder, as Minnesota traded him to Vegas in 2017 so the Wild could protect another player.  The grinding power forward had 33 points (18G, 15A) in the regular season, including six (3G, 3A) against Minnesota.

Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner have been a great tandem for the Golden Knights this year and they will share the 2021 Jennings Trophy after Vegas allowed the fewest goals in the NHL (124) during the regular season.  After being relegated to Lehner’s backup during last year’s playoffs, Fleury should be the starter this year.  The 36-year-old had a resurgent year, going 26-10-0 and posting career-bests in GAA (1.98) and SV (.928).  Lehner went 13-4-2 with 2.29 GAA and .913 SV.  Fleury was 3-3-0 against Minnesota this season, while Lehner was 0-1-1.

NHL Series Prediction: Who Will Win Wild vs. Golden Knights?

Minnesota has played great against the Golden Knights this year and they deserve kudos for winning the regular season series, but the playoffs are a completely different animal.  Vegas has too much playoff experience to be in any real danger and should be able to win this in five games.