2026 NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Which team will pick first overall?
For teams already out of playoff contention, there’s still something to play for (or more accurately, tank for): the draft lottery.
This will be the second year of the decentralized format, with all 32 teams remaining at their home base, while prospects head to KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York to be drafted in-person.
Here’s a complete breakdown of the 2026 NHL draft lottery.
Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of NHL game odds, NHL futures and NHL specials and props.
Key dates
- End of regular season: April 16, 2026
- NHL draft lottery: May 5, 2026
- NHL draft combine: May 31 to June 6, 2026 (LECOM Harborcenter in Buffalo, N.Y.)
- NHL draft: June 26-27, 2026 (KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y.)
Draft lottery
Penn State’s Gavin McKenna entered the year as the projected top overall pick in the 2026 NHL draft and that’s where he remains at the end of the season.
Teams can only win the lottery twice in a five-year span, but that won’t impact the lottery this year.
The New York Rangers had the biggest jump in the last 10 years, winning the lottery with the 14th-best odds in 2020 and selecting Alexis Lafreniere first overall. The rules were changed the next year and teams can now only move up 10 spots. That means only the bottom 11 teams in the NHL standings have a shot at the first overall pick.
Despite small odds to win, the lottery can still be a franchise-changer. The New York Islanders proved that last year when they won with the 10th-best odds (3.5 per cent) and selected franchise defenceman and Calder Trophy-favourite Matthew Schafer with the top pick.
Top 5 projected prospects
- Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
- Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)
- Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
- Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frolunda (SHL)
- Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)
2026 NHL draft lottery odds
| Rank | Team | No. 1 Pick Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Vancouver Canucks (clinched spot) | 25.5% |
| 2. | Chicago Blackhawks (clinched spot) | 13.5% |
| 3. | New York Rangers | 11.5% |
| 4. | Calgary Flames | 9.5% |
| 5. | Toronto Maple Leafs* | 8.5% |
| 6. | Seattle Kraken | 7.5% |
| 7. | Florida Panthers** | 6.5% |
| 8. | St. Louis Blues | 6.0% |
| 9. | San Jose Sharks | 5.0% |
| 10. | Winnipeg Jets | 3.5% |
| 11. | New Jersey Devils | 3.0% |
*Toronto’s pick is top-five protected (Boston)
**Florida’s pick is top-10 protected (Chicago)
Last 10 draft lottery results
| Year | Lottery Winner (Seed) | Original No. 1 Seed | First Overall Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New York Islanders (10) | San Jose Sharks | Matthew Schafer |
| 2024 | San Jose Sharks (1) | San Jose Sharks | Macklin Celebrini |
| 2023 | Chicago Blackhawks (3) | Anaheim Ducks | Connor Bedard |
| 2022 | Montreal Canadiens (1) | Montreal Canadiens | Juraj Slafkovsky |
| 2021 | Buffalo Sabres (1) | Buffalo Sabres | Owen Power |
| 2020 | New York Rangers (14) | Detroit Red Wings | Alexis Lafreniere |
| 2019 | New Jersey Devils (3) | Ottawa Senators | Jack Hughes |
| 2018 | Buffalo Sabres (1) | Buffalo Sabres | Rasmus Dahlin |
| 2017 | New Jersey Devils (3) | Colorado Avalanche | Nico Hischier |
| 2016 | Toronto Maple Leafs (1) | Toronto Maple Leafs | Auston Matthews |